Input		Value	Probabilistic			Deterministic
			Distribution	Normal/Log-Normal	Beta/Dirichlet	% of Mean Variation (±)
				SE as Proportion of Mean, %	Sample Size
Population size in each EDSS state		Varies by EDSS (not shown)	Log-normal	10	–	20
Discontinuation probabilities		0.1	Beta	–	1,000	20
Natural history EDSS transitions	RRMS-RRMS	Transition matrix (not shown)	Dirichlet	–	900	–
	SPMS-SPMS	Transition matrix (not shown)	Dirichlet	–	925	–
Relative mortality due to MS	By EDSS state	Varies by EDSS (not shown)	Normal	10	–	20
Base utility	EDSS 0	0.8752	Gamma	10	–	20
Utility adjustment (RRMS)	By EDSS state	Varies by EDSS (not shown)	1-Gamma	10	–	20
Utility adjustment (SPMS)		-0.0437	Gamma	10	–	20
LOE price reduction	Fingolimod	Varies by year (Table 1)	Beta	–	1,000	20
	IM IFNβ-1a		Beta	–	1,000	20
LOE proportion of population switching	Fingolimod	Varies by year (Table 1)	Beta	–	1,000	20
	IM IFNβ-1a		Beta	–	1,000	20
Input			Probabilistic			Deterministic
			Distribution	LCL	UCL
Age of cohort		29	Log-normal	23	35
Relative risk of disability progression versus placebo	Fingolimod	0.68	Log-normal	0.51	0.90	Lower and upper estimate based on LCL and UCL, respectively
	IM IFNβ-1a	0.79	Log-normal	0.63	1.00
Relative rate of relapse versus placebo	Fingolimod	0.46	Log-normal	0.39	0.55
	IM IFNβ-1a	0.83	Log-normal	0.74	0.94
Natural history of relapse	By EDSS state (RRMS)
	0	0.71	Normal	0.57	0.85
	1	0.73	Normal	0.58	0.88
	2	0.68	Normal	0.54	0.82
	3	0.72	Normal	0.58	0.86
	4	0.71	Normal	0.57	0.85
	5	0.59	Normal	0.47	0.71
	6	0.49	Normal	0.39	0.59
	7	0.51	Normal	0.41	0.61
	8	0.51	Normal	0.41	0.61
	9	0.51	Normal	0.41	0.61
	By EDSS state (SPMS)
	1	0	Normal	0	0.1
	2	0.47	Normal	0.38	0.56
	3	0.88	Normal	0.7	1.06
	4	0.55	Normal	0.44	0.66
	5	0.52	Normal	0.42	0.62
	6	0.45	Normal	0.36	0.54
	7	0.34	Normal	0.27	0.41
	8	0.34	Normal	0.27	0.41
	9	0.34	Normal	0.27	0.41
Natural history EDSS transitions (RRMS-SPMS)	0	0	Beta	0	0.003
	1	0.003	Beta	0.002	0.004
	2	0.032	Beta	0.026	0.038
	3	0.117	Beta	0.094	0.14
	4	0.21	Beta	0.168	0.252
	5	0.299	Beta	0.239	0.359
	6	0.237	Beta	0.19	0.284
	7	0.254	Beta	0.203	0.305
	8	0.153	Beta	0.122	0.184
	9	1	Beta	0.9	1

Source: Institute for Clinical and Economic Review. Confidence limits based on those reported in the ICER disease-modifying therapies for relapsing and primary-progressive multiple sclerosis: effectiveness and value.⁷

EDSS = Expanded Disability Status Scale; ICER = Institute for Clinical and Economic Review; IM IFNβ-1a = intramuscular interferon beta-1a; LCL = lower confidence limit; LOE = loss of exclusivity; MS = multiple sclerosis; RRMS = relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis; SE = standard error; SPMS = secondary progressive multiple sclerosis; UCL = upper confidence limit.