Fig. 5.

Age-standardised cervical cancer incidence with large-scale vaccination initiated in 2022 and 2030 under HPV-based screening scenarios. (a) Domestic 2vHPV; (b) imported 2vHPV; (c) 4vHPV; and (d) 9vHPV vaccines. The shadows represent the incidence difference between the two vaccination initiation dates and the values represent additional cases caused by the delay in HPV vaccination from 2022 to 2030 (8-year delay) under varied HPV-based screening scenarios in China. “HPV 2030”, “HPV 2050”, and “HPV 2070” screening scenarios represent switching to HPV-based screening at 5-year intervals in 2022, with linearly increasing age-specific uptake from status quo in 2021, to 70% in 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively, followed by a 1% increase every year till 90% is reached. HPV, human papillomavirus.