Table 3. Performance measures of time series techniques for the hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) incidence in Shenyang.

Model	Best parameters	Method	Box-Ljung test			RMSE	MAE	MAPE
			X-squared	Df	p-value
Holt-Winters seasonal model	α = 0.27, β = 0.38, γ = 1	Additive	0.087	2	0.957	0.198	0.13	40.215
Holt-Winters monthly model	α = 0.24, β = 0.05, γ = 0.75	Additive	7.386	6	0.287	0.078	0.054	71.535
SARIMA seasonal model	((1,2),1,0) (0,1,0) [4]	Additive	6.59*10−6	1	0.998	0.182	0.116	38.031
SARIMA monthly model	(1,1,0) (2,1,0) [12]	Multiple	0.381	1	0.537	0.071	0.049	65.968