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. 2023 Mar 9;192(8):1335–1340. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwad055

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© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com

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Simulation results illustrating how vaccine effectiveness (1 – relative risk) and infection dynamics are influenced by contact patterns and vaccine efficacies. Homogeneous contact rates (equal contacts among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals) and heterogeneous contact rates (vaccinated have higher contact between vaccinated) interact with vaccine efficacy against susceptibility () and vaccine efficacy against infectiousness () to influence measurements of vaccine effectiveness over time (A) and the proportion of infected (exposed or infectious) individuals over time (B). Measurements of negative vaccine effectiveness became positive once the proportion of susceptible unvaccinated individuals became lower than the proportion of susceptible vaccinated individuals combined with the level of (gray vertical lines; Web Appendix 3). Note that here the heterogeneous contact scenarios assume 50% higher contact between vaccinated individuals compared with the homogenous contact scenarios.

Inline graphic — Simulation results illustrating how vaccine effectiveness (1 – relative risk) and infection dynamics are influenced by contact patterns and vaccine efficacies. Homogeneous contact rates (equal contacts among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals) and heterogeneous contact rates (vaccinated have higher contact between vaccinated) interact with vaccine efficacy against susceptibility () and vaccine efficacy against infectiousness () to influence measurements of vaccine effectiveness over time (A) and the proportion of infected (exposed or infectious) individuals over time (B). Measurements of negative vaccine effectiveness became positive once the proportion of susceptible unvaccinated individuals became lower than the proportion of susceptible vaccinated individuals combined with the level of (gray vertical lines; Web Appendix 3). Note that here the heterogeneous contact scenarios assume 50% higher contact between vaccinated individuals compared with the homogenous contact scenarios.