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. 2023 Mar 9;9(5):459–473. doi: 10.1093/ehjqcco/qcad018

Figure 5.

Figure 5

Leading three risk factors for global CAVD deaths and APC-derived parameters for CAVD mortality attributable to high systolic blood pressure. (A) Leading three risk factors for global CAVD deaths and percentage of total deaths (1990 and 2019), and percentage change in all-age and age-standardized mortality from 1990 to 2019 for both sexes combined. Risk factors are connected by lines between time periods. (B) APC model-derived estimates of local drifts of CAVD mortality for 12 age groups (40−44 to 95−99 years), 1990−2019. The dots indicate the annual percentage change of CAVD mortality (% per year), and the shaded areas indicate the corresponding 95% CIs. (C) Age effects are represented by the fitted longitudinal age curves of CAVD mortality (per 100 000 person-years) and the corresponding 95% CIs. (D) Period effects are represented by the relative risk of mortality of each period compared with the reference (period 1990–1994) adjusted for age and nonlinear cohort effects and the corresponding 95% CI. (E) Cohort effects are represented by the relative risk of mortality of each cohort compared with the reference (cohort 1921–1929) adjusted for age and nonlinear period effects and the corresponding 95% CI. Age, period, and cohort effects are stratified by sex. CAVD, calcific aortic valve disease; APC, age–period–cohort; SDI, socio-demographic index; CI, confidence interval.