Table 2.
Trends in CAVD mortality across socio-demographic index quintiles, 1990−2019
| Global (N = 204) | Low SDI (N = 41) | Low-middle SDI (N = 41) | Middle SDI (N = 40) | High-middle SDI (N = 41) | High SDI (N = 41) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 2019 | 1990 | 2019 | 1990 | 2019 | 1990 | 2019 | 1990 | 2019 | 1990 | 2019 | |
| Population | ||||||||||||
| Number, n × 1000 000 | 5350 (5460,5239) | 7737 (7993,7483) | 528 | 1129 | 1130 | 1764 | 1717 | 2397 | 1150 | 1430 | 822 | 1013 |
| Percentage of global, % | 100.0 | 100.0 | 9.9 | 14.6 | 21.1 | 22.8 | 32.1 | 31.0 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 15.4 | 13.1 |
| Deaths | ||||||||||||
| Number, n × 1000 | 53 (48, 60) | 127 (106, 141) | 2 (1, 2) | 3 (3, 4) | 3 (2, 4) | 8 (7, 10) | 4 (4, 5) | 10 (9, 12) | 8 (7, 9) | 24 (21, 27) | 36 (32, 40) | 80 (64, 90) |
| Percentage of global, % | 100.0 | 100.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 15.7 | 19.3 | 67.6 | 63.2 |
| Percent change of deaths 1990–2019, % | 138 (113.4, 159.3) | 130.5 (80.9, 215.6) | 161.7 (115.6, 238.1) | 145.4 (109.5, 204.8) | 192.3 (156.7, 225.7) | 112.7 (96.9, 140.1) | ||||||
| APC model estimates | ||||||||||||
| Net drift of mortality, % per pear | −0.83 (−0.91, −0.74) | −0.03 (−0.29, 0.24) | 0.13 (−0.04, 0.30) | −0.10 (−0.24, 0.05) | 0.22 (0.06, 0.37) | −1.45 (−1.61, −1.30) | ||||||
| All-age mortality rate | ||||||||||||
| Rate per 100 000 | 1.00 (0.89, 1.12) | 1.64 (1.36, 1.83) | 0.28 (0.17, 0.42) | 0.31 (0.23, 0.39) | 0.28 (0.19, 0.37) | 0.46 (0.38, 0.57) | 0.25 (0.20, 0.30) | 0.44 (0.39, 0.49) | 0.73 (0.65, 0.80) | 1.71 (1.46, 1.91) | 4.38 (3.91, 4.85) | 7.92 (6.35, 8.89) |
| Per cent change of rate 1990–2019, % | 64.5 (47.5, 79.3) | 7.8 (−15.3, 47.7) | 67.6 (38.1, 116.5) | 75.8 (50.1, 118.3) | 135.1 (106.4, 162.0) | 80.7 (59.7, 94.8) | ||||||
| Age-standardized mortality rate | ||||||||||||
| Rate per 100 000 | 1.75 (1.55, 1.96) | 1.76 (1.45, 1.97) | 0.77 (0.47, 1.09) | 0.80 (0.61, 0.99) | 0.65 (0.44, 0.85) | 0.70 (0.57, 0.84) | 0.47 (0.39, 0.57) | 0.48 (0.43, 0.53) | 0.93 (0.81, 1.04) | 1.28 (1.08, 1.43) | 3.46 (3.06, 3.84) | 3.35 (2.75, 3.74) |
| Per cent change of rate 1990–2019, % | 0.4 (−8.9, 8.0) | 3.7 (−18.4, 38.7) | 7.5 (−10.5, 36.8) | 1.1 (−13.3, 24.6) | 36.9 (21.2, 53.6) | −3.2 (−11.9, 3.5) | ||||||
CAVD, calcific aortic valve disease; 95% UI, 95% uncertainty intervals; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; SDI, socio-demographic index; APC, age–period–cohort.