Table 3.

Calculation of expected maximal deaths in China using Hong Kong or South Korea stratified IFR estimates

Age-group	China population	IFR (HK)	Maximal deaths (per HK)	IFR (SK)	Maximal deaths (per SK)
0-19	335,323,469	0.000017	5,616	0.000006	2,103
20-29	175,108,854	0.000027	4,802	0.000012	2,170
30-39	233,767,164	0.000035	8,237	0.000017	3,919
40-49	202,957,964	0.000083	16,810	0.000052	10,482
50-59	233,838,693	0.00036	84,165	0.000177	41,273
60-69 (com)	154,777,903	0.000825	127,626	0.000575	89,054
70-79 (com)	81,730,213	0.001757	143,609	0.002338	191,047
80-89 (com)	23,834,546	0.006506	155,068	0.005779	137,730
90- (com)	3,132,598	0.026024	81,523	0.023114	72,408
LTCFs	4,000,000	0.09	360,000	0.017341	69,364
Total			987,455		619,549

China population as per 2022.

Com: community-dwelling population (excluding residents of LTCFs); HK: Hong Kong. SK: South Korea; IFR: infection fatality rate. LTCFs: long-term care facilities.

^*assuming 4 million residents of LTCFs distributed as 1 million 60-69, 1 million 70-79, 1.5 million 80-89, and 0.5 million above 90- years old.