Table 4.

Expected COVID-19 deaths in China until summer 2023

Percent infected in non- elderly	HK, S=1	HK, S=0.5	HK, S=0.25	SK, S=1	SK, S=0.5	SK, S=0.25
25	246,864	138,386	84,147	154,887	84,937	49,962
30	296,237	166,063	100,976	185,865	101,924	77,487
35	345,609	193,740	117,805	216,842	118,912	90,402
40	394,982	221,417	134,635	247,820	135,899	103,317
45	444,355	249,094	151,464	278,797	152,886	116,231
50	493,728	276,771	168,293	309,775	169,874	129,146
55	543,100	304,448	185,122	340,752	186,861	142,060
60	592,473	332,126	201,952	371,729	203,849	154,975
70	691,219	387,480	235,610	433,684	237,823	180,804

HK: based on Hong Kong-inferred infection fatality rates.

SK: based on South Korea-inferred infection fatality rates.

S=1, no precision shielding preferentially for the elderly (above 60 years old).

S=0.5, fatality impact reduced by half for the elderly.

S=0.25, fatality impact reduced by three-quarters for the elderly.