Table 1.

Predictive performance of the regARIMA models

Outcome: weekly case growth rate
period	country	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6
Alpha & Delta	Canada
	RMSE	0.1369	0.1400	0.1447	0.1351	0.1418	0.1479
	Israel
	RMSE	0.2688	0.3448	0.3613	0.2687	0.3437	0.3614
	Italy
	RMSE	0.1391	0.1520	0.1527	0.1391	0.1498	0.1530
	France
	RMSE	0.1646	0.1583	0.1643	0.1635	0.1624	0.1647
Omicron	Canada
	AICc	12.26	8.07	11.04	10.47	12.71	5.55
	Israel
	AICc	15.14	21.19	18.51	18.59	19.99	13.66
	Italy
	AICc	3.09	5.99	8.06	7.71	9.6	4.68
	France
	AICc	9.5	9.13	13.08	12.67	13.57	6.35

RMSE Root mean square error

AICc Corrected Akaike information criterion