Box 2.

Bayesian trials for pediatric multiple sclerosis.^{37, 38}

Frequentist approach	Bayesian approach
Inferences based on all possible data generated by the experiment, but all possible data not actually observed	Dependent upon data observed in the current experiment
Parameters fixed, but true parameter unknown	Parameters represented by probability distribution
Point estimates include maximum likelihood or least squares estimates	Point estimates include summary statistics of the posterior distribution (e.g. mean, median, and mode)
p-value represents probability of observing the same results, or more extreme results in the sample, if the null hypothesis is true in the population from which the sample is drawn	Posterior probability represents the probability of the null hypothesis
X% confidence interval represents an interval that would contain the true parameter value in X% of repeated samples	X% credible interval represents an interval that contains the true parameter value with X% probability
Safety and Efficacy of Teriflunomide vs Placebo in Paediatric Multiple Sclerosis (TERIKIDS) Study
Outcome: time to first relapse Frequentist approach (as published):	Bayesian approach: incorporate information from pooled effects of the TEMSO and TOWER trials in adults (HR = 0.68; 95%CI = 0.58–0.79)
HR = 0.66; 95% CI = 0.39–1.11	HR = 0.67; 95% CI = 0.51–0.87