Table 3:

Validation statistic for every 10-year model. Each model was run 10 times on random 80% derivation samples then assessed on the remaining 20%.

Outcome	ASCVD	MI	Stroke	HF	All-Cause Mortality	Fatal ASCVD	Fatal MI	Fatal Stroke
C-statistic: Derivation	0.753	0.745	0.794	0.852	0.776	0.836	0.748	0.813
C-statistic: Validation	0.758	0.750	0.802	0.850	0.775	0.834	0.752	0.827
C-statistic: Derivation-Validation Difference	−0.005	−0.004	−0.007	0.002	0.001	0.002	−0.004	−0.013
C-statistic: Std Dev of Derivation-Validation Difference	0.061	0.036	0.033	0.034	0.089	0.038	0.012	0.006
Brier Score: Derivation	0.059	0.034	0.032	0.034	0.089	0.037	0.012	0.005
Brier Score: Validation	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Brier Score: Derivation-Validation Difference	0.059	0.034	0.032	0.033	0.089	0.037	0.012	0.005
Calibration in the large: Derivation	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Calibration in the large: validation	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Risk: 25th percentile	0.027	0.015	0.009	0.004	0.035	0.008	0.004	0.001
Risk: 50th percentile	0.047	0.026	0.019	0.007	0.073	0.014	0.008	0.003
Risk: 75th percentile	0.083	0.043	0.040	0.015	0.159	0.027	0.016	0.007