Table 3.

Initial clues on releasing factors as peptides.

T = releasing factors are peptides
~T = alternative theory (releasing factors are not peptides)
E1 = oxytocin and vasopressin found by Vincent du Vigneaud from the posterior pituitary are peptides (1960)
E2 = glands of ectodermic embryonic origin (e.g., the hypothalamus) synthesize proteins or peptides (David Thompson)
E3 = a melanophore stimulating peptide was isolated from extracts of the posterior pituitary (Harris, 1955)
Probability	Value	Code	Description
P(T)=	0.5		Even odds that releasing factors are peptides
P(~T)=	0.5		1—prior
P(E1|T)=	0.6	WC	Peptide releasing factors weakly consistent with peptides oxytocin and vasopressin and other pituitary hormones
P(E1|~T)=	0.5	N	Alternative theory neutral with respect to peptides oxytocin and vasopressin
P(E2|T)=	0.6	WC	Peptide structure of releasing factors weakly consistent with embryonic development of ectoderm synthesizing peptides
P(E2|~T)=	0.5	N	Alternative theory neutral with respect to ectodermic origin
P(E3|T)=	0.6	WC	Peptide releasing factors weakly consistent with melanophore stimulating peptide isolated from the posterior pituitary
P(E3|~T)=	0.5	N	Alternative theory neutral with respect to melanophore stimulating peptide
P(T|E1-E3)=	0.63	Confirm

In the body of the table prior and posterior probabilities are shaded in yellow. Conditional probabilities are shaded green for the theory being tested and pink for the alternative. Bolded words in the Description column indicate the relationship between the theory and evidence in accord with the abbreviations in the Code column.