Table 1.

Model training performance for the different models tested (data from February 2013 to January 2017).

Model	Description	log score
BYM	Adjacency matrix based on geographical location of urban villages.	1.735
MOB	Adjacency matrix based on the human mobility patterns proxied from the geolocated location of Twitter users.	1.577
BYM + pop	Adjacency matrix based on geographical location of urban villages. The model also included population size.	1.789
MOB + pop	Adjacency matrix based on the human mobility patterns proxied from the geolocated location of Twitter users. The model also included population size.	1.565
BYM + pop + DLNM dengue 1–7	Adjacency matrix based on geographical location of urban villages in combination with distributed lag non-linear models for dengue cases in the past, including lags for 1–7 months. The model also included population size.	1.748
MOB + pop + DLNM dengue 1–7	Adjacency matrix based on the human mobility patterns proxied from the geolocated location of Twitter users in combination with distributed lag non-linear models for dengue cases in the past, including lags for 1–7 months. The model also included population size.	1.561