Table 3.
Estimated number of diet-related NCD deaths that could be averted or delayed by risk factor.
| By risk factor | Scenario 1 (FS 30%) | Scenario 2 (FS 50%) | Scenario 3 (FS 70%) | Scenario 4 (FS 100%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n (95% UI) | % | n (95% UI) | % | n (95% UI) | % | n (95% UI) | % | |
| Saturated fat | −8 (−10, −7) | 0 | −14 (−17, −11) | 0 | −19 (−24, −15) | 0 | −22 (−27, −17) | 0 |
| Sodium | 320 (136, 508) | 15 | 550 (219, 876) | 15 | 753 (330, 1,191) | 15 | 1,112 (460, 1,803) | 16 |
| Energy | 1,890 (1,732, 2,048) | 88 | 3,110 (2,849, 3,369) | 87 | 4,369 (4,009, 4,741) | 88 | 6,172 (5,650, 6,695) | 88 |
| Fiber | −44 (−63, −26) | −2 | −60 (−86, −34) | −2 | −84 (−120, −49) | −2 | −137 (−194, −79) | −2 |
| Total deaths * | 2,148 (1,913, 2,386) | 100 | 3,563 (3,163, 3,969) | 100 | 4,979 (4,446, 5,555) | 100 | 7,047 (6,249, 7,886) | 100 |
Numbers of diet-related NCD deaths that could be averted or delayed were estimated using the PRIME model, 95% UI are based on 10,000 iterations of Monte Carlo analysis built in PRIME (29). Details regarding the number of diet-related NCD deaths for each scenario for each of the NCDs are presented in Supplementary Table S4. *Total deaths averted or delayed represent less than the sum of the individual risk factors given that double counting has been accounted for in PRIME during the modeling process. Food substitution was performed for 30% (Scenario 1), 50% (Scenario 2), and 70% (Scenario 3) of randomly selected CCHS-Nutrition 2015 adult participants and for all adult participants (Scenario 4) who consumed at least one packaged food product that would display a ‘high in’ FOPL symbol under Canadian FOPL regulations. FS, Food Substitution; UI, Uncertainty Intervals.