Table 2.

Definition of annual variation rates of driving factors under different scenarios (%).

Scenarios	Year	Population size	GDP per capita	Urbanization rate	Carbon emission	The share of non − fossil energy	The share of secondary industry
L–L	2021–2025	− 0.2	3.50	0.8	− 2.5	8	− 1.5
	2026–2030	− 0.25	2.50	0.6	− 1.5	5	− 0.8
	2030–2040	− 0.3	1.50	0.4	− 1	3	− 0.5
	2040–2050	− 0.4	0.50	0.2	− 0.5	2	− 0.3
L–M	2021–2025	− 0.2	3.50	0.8	− 3	10	− 2
	2026–2030	− 0.25	2.50	0.6	− 2	7	− 1.3
	2030–2040	− 0.3	1.50	0.4	− 1.5	5	− 0.8
	2040–2050	− 0.4	0.50	0.2	− 1	3	− 0.5
M–L	2021–2025	− 0.15	5.50	1	− 2.5	8	− 1.5
	2026–2030	− 0.2	4.00	0.8	− 1.5	5	− 0.8
	2030–2040	− 0.25	2.50	0.6	− 1	3	− 0.5
	2040–2050	− 0.35	1.00	0.4	− 0.5	2	− 0.3
M–M	2021–2025	− 0.15	5.50	1	− 3	10	− 2
	2026–2030	− 0.25	4.00	0.8	− 2	7	− 1.3
	2030–2040	− 0.35	2.50	0.6	− 1.5	5	− 0.8
	2040–2050	− 0.5	1.00	0.4	− 1	3	− 0.5
M–H	2021–2025	− 0.15	5.50	1	− 3.5	12	− 2.5
	2026–2030	− 0.25	4.00	0.8	− 2.5	9	− 1.5
	2030–2040	− 0.35	2.50	0.6	− 2	7	− 1
	2040–2050	− 0.5	1.00	0.4	− 1.5	5	− 0.6
H–L	2021–2025	− 0.1	7.00	1.2	− 2.5	8	− 1.5
	2026–2030	− 0.15	5.00	1	− 1.5	5	− 0.8
	2030–2040	− 0.2	3.00	0.8	− 1	3	− 0.5
	2040–2050	− 0.25	2.00	0.6	− 0.5	2	− 0.3
H–M	2021–2025	− 0.1	7.00	1.2	− 3	10	− 2
	2026–2030	− 0.15	5.00	1	− 2	7	− 1.3
	2030–2040	− 0.2	3.00	0.8	− 1.5	5	− 0.8
	2040–2050	− 0.25	2.00	0.6	− 1	3	− 0.5
H–H	2021–2025	− 0.1	7.00	1.2	− 3.5	12	− 2.5
	2026–2030	− 0.15	5.00	1	− 2.5	9	− 1.5
	2030–2040	− 0.2	3.00	0.8	− 2	7	− 1
	2040–2050	− 0.25	2.00	0.6	− 1.5	5	− 0.6