Table 1.

The key parameters of the metastatic breast cancer model with N+C and L+C.

Variable/probability	Formula	Best estimate	SA range	Distribution
––N+C
RR		0.63
OS		24
PFS		8.8
DoR		8.5
Stable→Stable (Nss)	1-Nsp-Nsr	0.575	0.5175–0.6325	Beta
Stable→Remission(Nsr)	1-exp(-RR/3)	0.189	0.1701–0.2079	Beta
Stable→Relapse(Nsp)	Nrp*4	0.236	0.2124–0.2596	Beta
Remission→Remission(Nrr)	1-Nrp	0.941	0.8469–1.0000	Beta
Remission→Relapse(Nrp)	1-exp[-0.75*In(2)/(DoR)]	0.059	0.0531–0.0649	Beta
Relapse→Relapse(Npp)	1-Npd	0.966	0.8694–1.0000	Beta
Relapse→Death(Npd)	1-exp[-0.75*In(2)/(OS-PFS)]	0.034	0.0306–0.0374	Beta
––L+C
RR		0.7
OS		22
PFS		6.6
DoR		5.6
Stable→Stable (Lss)	1-Lsp-Lsr	0.44	0.3960–0.4840	Beta
Stable→Remission(Lsr)	1-exp(-RR/3)	0.208	0.1872–0.2288	Beta
Stable→Relapse(Lsp)	Lrp*4	0.352	0.3168–0.3872	Beta
Remission→Remission(Lrr)	1-Lrp	0.912	0.8208–1.0000	Beta
Remission→Relapse(Lrp)	1-exp[−0.75*In(2)/DoR)]	0.088	0.0792–0.0968	Beta
Relapse→Relapse(Lpp)	1-Lpd	0.967	0.8703–1.0000	Beta
Relapse→Death(Lpd)	1-exp(−0.75*In(2)/(OS-PFS)]	0.033	0.0297–0.0363	Beta
Discount rate for costs and QALYs		3% per year
Health state utilities
No recurrence (chemotherapeutic period)		0.74	0.0592–0.888	Beta
No recurrence (after chemotherapy)		0.94	0.752–1.000	Beta
local recurrence (in the first year)		0.74	0.592–0.888	Beta
Remission		0.85	0.680–1.000	Beta
Relapse		0.5	0.400–0.600	Beta

RR, relative risk, (OS−PFS)/OS; OS, overall survival; PFS, progression-free survival; DoR, duration of response; QALY, quality-adjusted life-year.