Table 1.

Model summary (in descending order of the number of peer-reviewed articles)

Model name/first author: SimSmoke Model type (self-reported): discrete Markov model, macrosimulation Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status (never, former, current), years since quitting Diseases: NA Outcomes: mortality, smoking prevalence, maternal and child health outcomes (smoking-attributable low birth weight, preterm births and sudden infant death syndrome) cases, uncertainty Sensitivity analysis: performed sensitivity analysis Validation: External validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 18 Related papers: 24 26–42	Model name/first author: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Economics model Model type (self-reported): a proportional multistate life-table, macrosimulation, Markov model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status (never, former, current) Diseases: 16 diseases—CHD, stroke, COPD, lower respiratory tract infection, and multiple cancers: lung, oesophageal, stomach, liver, head and neck, pancreas, cervical, bladder, kidney, endometrial, melanoma, and thyroid (with smoking protecting against the latter three cancers) Outcomes: equity, health-systems cost-savings, smoking prevalence, QALYs gained, health-adjusted life years, uncertainty Sensitivity analysis: PSA Validation: cross-validation, external validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 11 Related papers: 20 25 43–51
Model name/first author: IMPACT Model type (self-reported): cell-based model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes, fruit and vegetable, smoking status (never smoker, long-term ex-smoker, recent ex-smoker, current smoker), salt intake, saturated fat intake, BMI, physical activities Diseases: CHD, T2DM Outcomes: equity, CHD mortality, smoking prevalence, life-years gained, uncertainty Sensitivity analysis: Monte Carlo simulation Validation: external validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 6 Related papers: 23 107–111	Model name/first author: extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) tobacco tax model Model type (self-reported): ECEA Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking prevalence, number of cigarettes smoked daily; age at quitting Diseases: COPD, heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, bladder cancer Outcomes: disease treatment costs, averted premature death, life-years gained, additional revenues generated, equity, uncertainty Sensitivity analysis: one-way, Monte Carlo simulation Validation: validated model Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 5 Related papers: 70–74
Model name/first author: EQUIPTMOD Model type (self-reported): Markov state-transition cohort model, macrosimulation Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status (former, current) Diseases: COPD, CHD, stroke, lung cancer Outcomes: cost, ROI, ICER, QALY Sensitivity analysis: univariate, others Validation: no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 5 Related papers: 112–116	Model name/first author: DYNAMO-HIA model Model type (self-reported): macrosimulation, Markov-based life-table Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): alcohol intake, BMI, smoking status, secondhand smoking Diseases: COPD, IHD, stroke, cancers, T2DM Outcomes: mortality, morbidity, morbidity-free years, life expectancy, number of deaths Sensitivity analysis: performed sensitivity analysis Validation: no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 5 Related papers: 94–98
Model name/first author: Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes model Model type (self-reported): discrete-time Markov model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoker, recent quitter and long-term quitter Diseases: COPD, CHD, stroke, lung cancer, asthma exacerbation, chronic obstructive lung diseases Outcomes: total morbidity and mortality, economics impact Sensitivity analysis: one-way, PSA Validation:no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 4 Related papers: 63–66	Model name/first author: Jiménez model Model type (self-reported): closed cohort Markov model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status, willingness to quit history Diseases: COPD, CVD, T2DM Outcomes: incremental cost-savings, number of quitters Sensitivity analysis: univariate sensitivity analysis Validation: internal validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 3 Related papers: 89–91
Model name/first author: Johansson model Model type (self-reported): a Markov model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status (former, current) Diseases: COPD, CHD, stroke, cancers Outcomes: QALY, life years lost, cost, uncertainty Sensitivity analysis: univariable, multivariable, PSA Validation: external validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 3 Related papers: 17 57 58	Model name/first author: Prevention Impacts Simulation Model Model type (self-reported): system dynamics model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): blood pressure, cholesterol, secondhand smoking, obesity, psychological distress, fruit and vegetable, smoking status (never smoker, long-term ex-smoker, recent ex-smoker, current smoker), blood glucose categories (normal, pre-diabetic, diabetic), periodontal disease, sleep apnoea, small particulate air pollution and inadequate use of aspirin for primary prevention Diseases: CVD Outcomes: mortality and morbidity, healthcare cost, productivity loss, uncertainty Sensitivity analysis: PSA Validation: external validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 3 Related papers: 75–77
Model name/first author: Baker model Model type (self-reported): closed cohort Markov model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): eligible smoker, ineligible smoker, initial quitter, successful quitter Diseases: NA Outcomes: number of quitters, morbidity, mortality, medical expenditures Sensitivity analysis: univariate, multivariable analyses Validation: no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 2 Related papers: 99 100	Model name/first author: Barnett model Model type (self-reported): a Markov model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status (former, current) Diseases: NA Outcomes: mortality, healthcare cost, QALY, uncertainty Sensitivity analysis: one-way, PSA Validation: no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 2 Related papers: 59 60
Model name/first author: Cantor model Model type (self-reported): decision-analytical model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status Diseases: NA Outcomes: cost, QALY Sensitivity analysis: one-way, two-way uncertainty analyses Validation: no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 2 Related papers: 61 62	Model name/first author: Chevreul model Model type (self-reported): Markov state transition model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status (smoker, former smoker), diagnosed with either lung cancer, COPD or CVD such as stroke or coronary artery disease and dead (smoker: ≥1 cigarette/day) Diseases: COPD, CVD, lung cancer Outcomes: ICER Sensitivity analysis: deterministic sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation Validation: internal validation, external validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 2 Related papers: 101 102
Model name/first author: Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-US model Model type (self-reported): microsimulation Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking intensity (packs/day)—heavy/moderate/light, CD4+T cell count, viral load, history of opportunistic disease and antiretroviral treatment use Diseases: lung cancer Outcomes: life expectancy, mortality Sensitivity analysis: two-way Validation: internal validation, external validation and cross-validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 2 Related papers: 92 93	Model name/first author: ModelHealth: Tobacco Model type (self-reported): microsimulation Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status (never, former, current) Diseases: CVD, stroke, lung cancer, respiratory disease Outcomes: medical cost, hospitalisation, mortality and morbidity, productivity loss, QALY, smoking prevalence Sensitivity analysis: one-way Validation: internal validation, external validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 2 Related papers: 103 104
Model name/first author: Parrott model Model type (self-reported): decision tree Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): childhood exposure to maternal smoking, smoking status (current, former) Diseases: COPD, CHD, stroke, lung cancer, asthma, pregnancy-related (placental abruption, ectopic pregnancy, pre-eclampsia, placenta previa and miscarriage, infant morbidities: low infant birth weight, stillbirth, premature birth) Outcomes: ICER, QALY, uncertainty Sensitivity analysis: PSA Validation: no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 2 Related papers: 67 68	Model name/first author: Population Health Impact Model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): never tobacco users, former tobacco users, current cigarette smokers, current cMRTP users, current dual users Diseases: COPD, IHD, stroke, lung cancer Outcomes: mortality, cMRTP uptake Sensitivity analysis: performed sensitivity analysis Validation: model validated Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 2 Related papers: 18 52
Model name/first author: Tobacco Town Model type (self-reported): agent-based model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking intensity (cigarettes/day) Diseases: NA Outcomes: cost, tobacco purchase behaviour Sensitivity analysis: performed sensitivity analysis Validation: no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 2 Related papers: 79 80	Model name/first author: UK Health Forum simulation Model type (self-reported): microsimulation Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status (never, former, current) Diseases: COPD, CHD, stroke, 14 cancers Outcomes: cost, morbidity, smoking prevalence, uncertainty Sensitivity analysis: performed sensitivity analysis Validation: no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 2 Related papers: 81 82
Model name/first author: Chronic Disease Model Model type (self-reported): closed cohort multistate Markov model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status (never, former, current) Diseases: acute myocardial infarction, chronic heart failure, COPD, stroke (CVA), T2DM, and cancer of the lung, stomach, oesophagus, larynx, bladder, kidney, pancreas, and oral cavity Outcomes: cost, QALY, number of quitters Sensitivity analysis: one-way Validation: no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 1 Related papers: 117	Model name/first author: Chronic Heart Disease Policy Model Model type (self-reported): state-transition (Markov) computer-simulation model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): active smoker or secondhand smoke exposure, systolic blood pressure, BMI, level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, level of low-density lipoprotein, diabetes Diseases: CHD and stroke Outcomes: CHD incidence, prevalence, mortality, costs, uncertainty Sensitivity analysis: Monte Carlo simulations Validation: no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 1 Related papers: 118
Model name/first author: Lung Cancer Policy Model Model type (self-reported): state-transition microsimulation model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking history (length of time a person smoked and cigarettes smoked per day) Diseases: three cancers from any of the following five lung cancer cell types: adenocarcinoma (including adenocarcinoma in situ), large cell, squamous cell, small cell and other Outcomes: mortality rate and cost-effectiveness Sensitivity analysis: performed sensitivity analysis Validation: model validated Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 1 Related papers: 69	Model name/first author: Mendez model Model type (self-reported): Excel-based Markov model Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status (never, former, current) Diseases: NA Outcomes: cost, DALY, smoking prevalence Sensitivity analysis: PSA Validation: model validated Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 1 Related papers: 78*
Model name/first author: Mejia model Model type (self-reported): decision tree model used in Monte Carlo simulations Risk factors included (smoking status provided with details): smoking status (current cigarette user, current e-cigarette, dual user) Diseases: NA Outcomes: morbidity, uncertainty Sensitivity analysis: performed sensitivity analysis Validation: no model validation Number of peer-reviewed articles in this search: 1 Related papers: 83

*Paper mentioned that this simulation model is based on the model developed by Mendez, Warner and Courant.

BMI, body mass index; CHD, coronary heart disease; cMRTP, candidate modified risk tobacco products; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CVA, cerebrovascular accident; CVD, cardiovascular disease; DALY, disability-adjusted life year; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; IHD, ischaemic heart disease; NA, not available; PSA, probabilistic sensitivity analysis; QALY, quality-adjusted life year; ROI, return on investment; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus.