Table 2.

OS projections based on standard parametric extrapolations versus Bayesian informed prior extrapolations

	Standard (uninformed) parametric extrapolations						Bayesian (informed) prior extrapolations
	Weibull	Exponential	Log-normal	Log-logistic	Gompertz	Gen gamma	Informed Weibull	Informed log-normal	Informed log-logistic	Strongly informed Weibull	Strongly informed log-normal	Strongly informed log-logistic
AIC	250.87	250.66	251	251.07	250.67	252.62	–	–	–	–	–	–
BIC	256.02	253.24	256.14	256.22	255.82	260.34	–	–	–	–	–	–
5-Year OS, %	27	50	50	40	0	0	53	59	57	58	61	59
Range	27–50						53–57			58–61
10-Year OS, %	3	25	31	19	0	0	31	44	40	40	48	44
Range	3–31						31–44			40–48
15-Year OS, %	0	13	22	12	0	0	18	36	31	29	40	35
20-Year OS, %	0	6	16	8	0	0	11	28	24	21	31	28
5-Year RMST (months)	37.70	43.38	42.90	40.32	28.22	31.97	43.36	45.17	44.43	44.38	45.64	44.92
Range	37.70–43.38						43.36–45.17			44.38–45.64
10-Year RMST (months)	44.60	65.10	66.59	56.84	28.22	31.97	67.59	75.73	72.71	73.20	77.91	75.37
Range	44.60–66.59						67.59–75.73			73.20–77.91
Lifetime mean OS (months)	45.27	86.23	109.39	78.89	28.22	31.97	100.58	145.71	132.90	128.80	154.99	144.74
Range	45.27–109.39						100.58–145.71			128.80–154.99

AIC Akaike information criteria, BIC Bayesian information criteria, OS overall survival, RMST restricted mean survival time