Table 3.

Comparison of OS projections using standard parametric extrapolation and Bayesian informative prior approach versus observed 28-month median follow-up data

	KM 28 month	Uninformed Weibull	Uninformed exponential	Uninformed log-normal	Uninformed log-logistic	Informed Weibull	Informed log-normal	Informed log-logistic
40.4-monthsa RMST (months)	32.12	30.50	32.33	32.04	31.19	32.01	32.77	32.47
Area between extrapolation and 28-month CARTITUDE-1 OS KM (months)		1.81	0.58	0.48	1.10	0.77	0.92	0.82

The value is bolded to indicate it is observed data, whereas the other values in the table refer to extrapolated data

KM Kaplan–Meier, OS overall survival, RMST restricted mean survival time

^aMaximum duration of KM data