Table 3.
Joinpoint regression analysis of disability-adjusted life years from HIV in MENA countries, 1990–2019.
| Country | Trend 1 | Trend 2 | Trend 3 | Trend 4 | Trend 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | APC (95% CI) | Years | APC (95% CI) | Years | APC (95% CI) | Years | APC (95% CI) | Years | APC (95% CI) | |
| Age-standardized rates disability-adjusted life years (GBD database) | ||||||||||
| Algeria | 1990–1996 | 9.8* (9.2, 11) | 1997–1999 | 5.8* (4.8, 8) | 2000–2007 | 8.6 (−0.1, 10) | 2008–2013 | −1.3* (−2.8, −0.4) | 2014–2019 | −9.1* (−10.1, −8.1) |
| Bahrain | 1990–1997 | 8.6* (7.4, 9.7) | 1998–2003 | −6.6* (−9.3, −4.5) | 2004–2007 | −1.4 (−4.1, 1.4) | 2008–2016 | −6.4* (−7.4, −5.3) | 2017–2019 | −15.2* (−18.7, −10) |
| Djibouti | 1990–1991 | 211.3* (190.9, 235.5) | 1992–1995 | 93.1* (87.4, 99.1) | 1996–2000 | 31.3* (28.2, 34.3) | 2001–2008 | 1.3 (−0.2, 3.2) | 2009–2019 | −6.1* (−7.3, −5) |
| Egypt | 1990–1994 | 8.5* (6.4, 11.4) | 1995–2004 | −0.4 (−1.1, 0.6) | 2005–2007 | −9.4* (−11.4, −5.6) | 2008–2012 | −0.4 (−2.4, 4) | 2013–2019 | −11.3* (−12.8, −9.8) |
| Iran | 1990–1996 | 9.2* (8.7, 9.6) | 1997–2004 | 14.4* (14, 14.8) | 2005–2008 | 5.8* (4.7, 6.5) | 2009–2011 | 9.2* (7.8, 10) | 2012–2019 | 5* (4.5, 5.4) |
| Iraq | 1990–2001 | 11.7* (11.5, 11.9) | 2002–2005 | 6.6* (5.9, 7.8) | 2006–2012 | 3* (2.6, 3.4) | 20132019 | −2.1* (−2.5, −1.7) | – | – |
| Jordan | 1990–1996 | 13* (11.9, 14.6) | 1997–2003 | 8* (6.7, 9) | 2004–2006 | −12.1* (−13.8, −10.1) | 2007–2012 | 8* (6.6, 9.5) | 2013–2019 | −2.6* (−3.9, −1.2) |
| Kuwait | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Lebanon | 1990–1993 | 6.6* (5.1, 9) | 1994–1999 | 0.7 (−0.6, 1.8) | 2000–2005 | −4.8* (−6.8, −4.1) | 2006–2014 | −2.8* (−3.4, −2.1) | 2015–2019 | 0.4 (−0.9, 3) |
| Libya | 1990–2002 | 10.2* (10, 10.4) | 2003–2005 | 5.7* (4.3, 8.3) | 2006–2012 | 2.2* (1.8, 2.6) | 2013–2015 | −3* (−3.8, −1.6) | 2016–2019 | 2.8* (1.7, 5) |
| Morocco | 1990–1993 | 18.7* (17.6, 20.1) | 1994–1998 | 13.6* (12.7, 14.8) | 1999–2002 | 10.7* (7.6, 11.4) | 2003–2011 | 0.8* (0.5, 1) | 2012–2019 | −9.3* (−9.6, −9) |
| Oman | 1990–1999 | 16.8* (14.2, 18.8) | 2000–2002 | −5.2 (−7.9, 18.9) | 2003–2005 | 22.1 (−5, 26.5) | 2006–2008 | 13.6 (−5.9, 18.2) | 2009–2019 | −3.1* (−6.6, −0.5) |
| Palestine | 1990–1992 | 16.5* (15.3, 18.1) | 1993–1996 | 12.6* (11.3, 13.6) | 1997–2004 | 10* (9.5, 10.3) | 2005–2007 | 4* (2.7, 5.4) | 2008–2019 | −0.2 (−0.4, 0) |
| Qatar | 1990–1994 | 8.9* (6.6, 12.7) | 1995–1998 | −2.9 (−5.5, 0) | 1999–2001 | −26.7* (−28.9, −21.8) | 2002–2008 | 0.2 (−1.2, 2.7) | 2009–2019 | −5.6* (−6.8, −4.8) |
| Saudi Arabia | 1990–1992 | 10.6* (10, 11.3) | 1993–2002 | 8.8* (8.7, 8.9) | 2003–2005 | 3.6* (3.3, 3.9) | 2006–2011 | −0.4* (−0.6, −0.1) | 2012–2019 | −1.7* (−1.9, −1.5) |
| Somalia | 1990–1991 | 132.2* (112.1, 149.2) | 1992–1995 | 53.2* (46.2, 61.7) | 1996–1999 | 24.6* (15.8, 32.8) | 2000–2005 | 3.7 (−0.1, 7.8) | 2006–2019 | −5.9* (−6.8, −5.1) |
| Sudan | 1990–1992 | 41.7* (39, 44.5) | 1993–1997 | 21* (19.5, 22.4) | 1998–2003 | 8.2* (7.1, 9.5) | 2004–2014 | 0.8* (0.4, 1.5) | 2015–2019 | −2.3* (−5.1, −0.7) |
| Syria | 1990–2001 | 5.6* (5.1, 6.1) | 2002–2009 | −2.7* (−3.9, −1.7) | 2010–2013 | 5.9* (3.9, 9.2) | 2014–2016 | −10.7* (−12.7, −8) | 2017–2019 | 3.5 (−0.8, 7.3) |
| Tunisia | 1990–1992 | 14.9* (13.6, 16.7) | 1993–2000 | 12.5* (11.9, 12.8) | 2001–2011 | 7.7* (7.5, 7.8) | 2012–2016 | 1.4* (1, 1.8) | 2017–2019 | −4.9* (−6.2, −2.9) |
| UAE | 1990–1992 | 13.7* (11.5, 16.9) | 1993–2002 | 10.9* (7.6, 11.3) | 2003–2008 | 7.1* (5.3, 9.1) | 2009–2015 | 13.5* (12.8, 14.5) | 2016–2019 | −3.1* (−4.6, −1.7) |
| Yemen | 1990–1994 | 7.7* (6.7, 8.9) | 1995–2005 | 2.8* (2.4, 3.1) | 2006–2014 | −1.6* (−2.2, −1.2) | 2015–2019 | 2.8* (1.5, 5) | – | – |
| Total | 1990–1996 | 40* (39.1, 41.2) | 1997–1999 | 25.4* (22.3, 29.2) | 2000–2003 | 7.6* (5.6, 9.4) | 2004–2010 | −1.4* (−2.2, −0.4) | 2011–2019 | −5.5* (−6.3, −4.9) |
APC annual percentage change, UAE United Arab Emirates.
*P < 0.05 versus 0 (output from joinpoint regression analysis).