Table 7.
The age-period-cohort model analysis results of HIV incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years in MENA countries (GBD).
| Index | Age | Period | Cohort | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Range | Coefficient | SE | P value | Range | Coefficient | SE | P value | Range | Coefficient | SE | P value | |
| Incidence | 15–24 years | – | – | – | 1990–94 | – | – | – | 1960–64 | 0.053 | 0.048 | <0.001 |
| 25–34 years | – | – | – | 1995–99 | – | – | – | 1965–69 | −0.028 | 0.030 | <0.001 | |
| 35–44 years | −1.113 | 0.015 | <0.001 | 2000–04 | −1.460 | 0.015 | <0.001 | 1970–74 | −0.019 | 0.023 | <0.001 | |
| 45–54 years | −0.266 | 0.015 | <0.001 | 2005–09 | 0.093 | 0.016 | <0.001 | 1975–79 | −0.199 | 0.017 | <0.001 | |
| 55–54 years | 0.110 | 0.019 | <0.001 | 2010–14 | 0.315 | 0.018 | <0.001 | 1980–84 | 0.064 | 0.016 | <0.001 | |
| 65–74 years | 0.496 | 0.023 | <0.001 | 2015–19 | −0.140 | 0.020 | <0.001 | 1985–89 | −0.027 | 0.018 | <0.001 | |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1990–94 | −0.009 | 0.021 | <0.001 | |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1995–99 | 0.018 | 0.026 | <0.001 | |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2000–04 | 0.052 | 0.039 | <0.001 | |
| Mortality | 15–24 years | – | – | – | 1990–94 | – | – | – | 1960–64 | −0.039 | 0.117 | <0.001 |
| 25–34 years | – | – | – | 1995–99 | – | – | – | 1965–69 | 0.020 | 0.054 | <0.001 | |
| 35–44 years | −1.102 | 0.033 | <0.001 | 2000–04 | −0.772 | 0.041 | <0.001 | 1970–74 | 0.050 | 0.034 | <0.001 | |
| 45–54 years | −0.627 | 0.019 | <0.001 | 2005–09 | −0.712 | 0.022 | <0.001 | 1975–79 | 0.031 | 0.025 | <0.001 | |
| 55–54 years | −0.460 | 0.019 | <0.001 | 2010–14 | −0.173 | 0.019 | <0.001 | 1980–84 | −0.076 | 0.020 | <0.001 | |
| 65–74 years | 0.253 | 0.024 | <0.001 | 2015–19 | −0.040 | 0.019 | <0.001 | 1985–89 | −0.088 | 0.020 | <0.001 | |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1990–94 | −0.155 | 0.024 | <0.001 | |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1995–99 | −0.057 | 0.036 | <0.001 | |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2000–04 | 0.075 | 0.039 | <0.001 | |
| Disability-adjusted life years | 15–24 years | – | – | – | 1990–94 | – | – | – | 1960–64 | −0.023 | 0.023 | <0.001 |
| 25–34 years | – | – | – | 1995–99 | – | – | – | 1965–69 | 0.022 | 0.010 | <0.001 | |
| 35–44 years | −1.108 | 0.004 | <0.001 | 2000–04 | −0.784 | 0.005 | <0.001 | 1970–74 | 0.051 | 0.006 | <0.001 | |
| 45–54 years | −0.662 | 0.002 | <0.001 | 2005–09 | −0.677 | 0.003 | <0.001 | 1975–79 | 0.028 | 0.004 | <0.001 | |
| 55–54 years | −0.505 | 0.003 | <0.001 | 2010–14 | −0.159 | 0.002 | <0.001 | 1980–84 | −0.071 | 0.003 | <0.001 | |
| 65–74 years | 0.179 | 0.004 | <0.001 | 2015–19 | −0.052 | 0.002 | <0.001 | 1985–89 | −0.114 | 0.002 | <0.001 | |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1990–94 | −0.146 | 0.003 | <0.001 | |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1995–99 | −0.040 | 0.004 | <0.001 | |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2000–04 | 0.495 | 0.009 | <0.001 | |