Table 7.

Numbers of cases, sensitivity, specificity, and observed 10-year risk identified in each twentieth of predicted risk using the CanPredict algorithm in the QResearch validation cohort. Of 4,117,527 patients, 5014 developed oesophageal cancer during follow-up.

Top centile	Threshold of predicted 10-year risk (%)	Below threshold/no cancera	Below threshold/cancerb	Above threshold/no cancerc	Above threshold/cancerd	Sensitivity%	Specificity%	Observed 10-year risk %
Top 5%	0.97	3,908,150	3501	204,363	1513	30.18	95.03	1.44 (1.35, 1.53)
Top 10%	0.63	3,703,315	2460	409,198	2554	50.94	90.05	1.09 (1.04, 1.14)
Top 15%	0.44	3,498,143	1755	614,370	3259	65.00	85.06	0.89 (0.85, 0.93)
Top 20%	0.31	3,292,817	1205	819,696	3809	75.97	80.07	0.76 (0.73, 0.78)
Top 25%	0.22	3,087,333	813	1,025,180	4201	83.79	75.07	0.65 (0.63, 0.67)
Top 30%	0.16	2,881,714	555	1,230,799	4459	88.93	70.07	0.57 (0.55, 0.59)
Top 35%	0.11	2,676,016	377	1,436,497	4637	92.48	65.07	0.50 (0.48, 0.52)
Top 40%	0.08	2,470,282	235	1,642,231	4779	95.31	60.07	0.45 (0.43, 0.46)
Top 45%	0.05	2,264,481	159	1,848,032	4855	96.83	55.06	0.40 (0.39, 0.42)
Top 50%	0.04	2,058,662	102	2,053,851	4912	97.97	50.06	0.37 (0.36, 0.38)
Top 55%	0.02	1,852,824	64	2,259,689	4950	98.72	45.05	0.34 (0.33, 0.35)
Top 60%	0.017	1,646,966	45	2,465,547	4969	99.10	40.05	0.31 (0.30, 0.32)
Top 65%	0.012	1,441,103	32	2,671,410	4982	99.36	35.04	0.29 (0.28, 0.30)
Top 70%	0.008	1,235,237	22	2,877,276	4992	99.56	30.04	0.28 (0.27, 0.29)
Top 75%	0.006	1,029,367	15	3,083,146	4999	99.70	25.03	0.26 (0.25, 0.27)
Top 80%	0.004	823,497	9	3,289,016	5005	99.82	20.02	0.25 (0.24, 0.26)
Top 85%	0.003	617,624	6	3,494,889	5008	99.88	15.02	0.24 (0.23, 0.25)
Top 90%	0.002	411,748	5	3,700,765	5009	99.90	10.01	0.23 (0.22, 0.24)
Top 100%	na	0	0	4,112,513	5014	100.0	0	0.22 (0.21, 0.23)

^aObserved number of individuals below the risk threshold who did not develop oesophageal cancer.

^bObserved number of individuals below the risk threshold who did develop oesophageal cancer.

^cObserved number of individuals above the risk threshold who did not develop oesophageal cancer.

^dObserved number of individuals above the risk threshold who did develop oesophageal cancer.