Table 1.

Probabilities of patients passing through the pathways of the model. The probabilities between the two arms were assumed to be equal and were estimated from unbundled data, combined data of 585 high and low FiO₂ patients (558 from India and 27 from South Africa) participating in the PENGUIN pilot study. FiO₂, perioperative fraction of inspired oxygen; sd, standard deviation; SSI, surgical site infection. ∗Re-intervention after in-patient SSI. ^†SSI occurring after the patient was discharged from the hospital. ^‡SSI that occurred after hospital discharge and did not resolve. ^¶Unresolved post-discharge SSI that needed re-intervention. ^§However, the probability of in-patient SSI in the high FiO₂ arm was estimated by reducing the probability of in-patient SSI in the low FiO₂ arm by 12.5% relative risk reduction.

Variable	Baseline probability (sd)	Distribution	Source
Low FiO2
In-patient SSI	0.08 (0.01)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9
Unresolved in-patient SSI	0.53 (0.08)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9
Re-intervention∗	0.50 (0.11)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9
Post-discharge SSI†	0.02 (0.01)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9
Unresolved post-discharge SSI‡	0.13 (0.12)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9
Post-discharge re-intervention¶	0.002 (0.002)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9
High FiO2
In-patient SSI	0.07 (0.01)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9§
Unresolved in-patient SSI	0.53 (0.08)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9
Re-intervention∗	0.50 (0.11)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9
Post-discharge SSI†	0.02 (0.01)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9
Unresolved post-discharge SSI†	0.13 (0.12)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9
Post-discharge re-intervention¶	0.002 (0.002)	Beta	PENGUIN pilot trial9