Table 3.
Population 13-year risk estimates of overweight/obesity using the g-formula
| Observed risk: 31.38 | Risk (%) | 95% LCL | 95% UCL | Population risk ratio | 95% LCL | 95% UCL | Population risk difference | 95% LCL | 95% UCL | Cumulative % interveneda | Average % intervenedb | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Natural course | 30.7 | 28.4 | 32.7 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1a | All subjects meet screen time recommendations | 28.5 | 25.5 | 30.6 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.98 | -2.21 | -4.39 | -0.71 | 97.1 | 75.1 |
| Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 30.1 | 27.7 | 32.1 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 1.02 | -0.56 | -1.97 | 0.54 | 49.3 | 39.3 | |
| Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.0 | 27.9 | 32.0 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.99 | -0.71 | -1.47 | -0.16 | 27.0 | 21.3 | |
| 1b | All subjects reduce screen time by 0.5 h/day | 30.0 | 27.9 | 32.1 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.99 | -0.64 | -1.16 | -0.22 | 97.1 | 75.1 |
| Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 30.5 | 28.3 | 32.6 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1 | -0.17 | -0.52 | 0.09 | 49.3 | 39.3 | |
| Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.5 | 28.2 | 32.5 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.36 | -0.06 | 27.0 | 21.3 | |
| 2 | All subjects are members in sports club | 29.1 | 26.5 | 31.0 | 0.95 | 0.91 | 0.99 | -1.58 | -2.73 | -0.41 | 77.1 | 32.2 |
| Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 29.6 | 27.3 | 31.6 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 1 | -1.02 | -1.93 | -0.06 | 42.4 | 19.2 | |
| Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.0 | 27.8 | 32.1 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 1 | -0.65 | -1.08 | -0.08 | 22.0 | 9.5 | |
| 3 | All subjects use an active form of transport | 29.6 | 26.9 | 31.7 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 1.02 | -1.12 | -2.17 | 0.53 | 78.2 | 36.0 |
| Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 30.1 | 27.7 | 32.3 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 1.02 | -0.53 | -1.36 | 0.67 | 38.9 | 17.9 | |
| Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.3 | 28.1 | 32.1 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.01 | -0.4 | -0.75 | 0.27 | 21.5 | 9.8 | |
| 4a | All subjects meet sleep recommendations | 30.0 | 27.5 | 31.9 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.99 | -0.64 | -1.07 | -0.28 | 58.5 | 37.7 |
| Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 30.3 | 27.9 | 32.3 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.99 | -0.35 | -0.58 | -0.15 | 29.8 | 19.4 | |
| Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.4 | 28.1 | 32.4 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1 | -0.22 | -0.36 | -0.1 | 16.9 | 10.8 | |
| 4b | All subjects increase sleep by 0.5 h | 30.1 | 27.6 | 32.0 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.99 | -0.59 | -0.94 | -0.25 | 58.5 | 37.7 |
| Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 30.4 | 27.9 | 32.3 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1 | -0.32 | -0.51 | -0.13 | 29.8 | 19.4 | |
| Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.5 | 28.1 | 32.5 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.31 | -0.09 | 16.9 | 10.8 | |
| 5 | All subjects eat while doing something else non-daily | 29.5 | 26.8 | 31.5 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 1 | -1.22 | -2.72 | -0.05 | 70.5 | 27.7 |
| Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 29.9 | 27.2 | 31.8 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 1 | -0.8 | -1.64 | 0.09 | 37.9 | 15.8 | |
| Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.2 | 27.7 | 32.3 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 1 | -0.48 | -0.95 | -0.04 | 19.7 | 7.7 | |
| 6a | All subjects drink max 4 SSB per week | 31.6 | 29.2 | 33.5 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.06 | 0.97 | 0.18 | 1.82 | 78.0 | 46.4 |
| Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 31.4 | 28.9 | 33.4 | 1.02 | 1 | 1.04 | 0.69 | 0.15 | 1.25 | 42.1 | 26.5 | |
| Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 31.0 | 28.7 | 33.1 | 1.01 | 1 | 1.02 | 0.36 | 0.08 | 0.71 | 22.6 | 13.9 | |
| 6b | All subjects reduce SSB by 1/day | 31.4 | 29.0 | 33.4 | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.05 | 0.73 | 0.16 | 1.4 | 78.0 | 46.4 |
| Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 31.2 | 28.8 | 33.2 | 1.02 | 1 | 1.03 | 0.5 | 0.12 | 0.93 | 42.1 | 26.5 | |
| Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.9 | 28.6 | 33.0 | 1.01 | 1 | 1.02 | 0.27 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 22.6 | 13.9 | |
| 7 | All subjects adhere to recommendation for all variables (1a, 2, 3, 4a, 5 and 6a combined) | 25.4 | 22.1 | 27.7 | 0.83 | 0.74 | 0.9 | -5.27 | -7.84 | -3.15 | 100.0 | 93.0 |
| Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 28.3 | 25.4 | 31.2 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.98 | -2.34 | -4.28 | -0.64 | 50.4 | 47.7 | |
| Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 28.7 | 26.5 | 31.3 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 0.97 | -1.96 | -2.83 | -1.05 | 27.7 | 26.0 |
Hypothetical interventions on entire cohort as well as on children of parents with low/medium ISCED level and children of mother’s with BMI > 25 kg/m2 at baseline using data from W0 to W3. Model allowing contemporaneous effects of exposures on the outcome
aThe cumulative percent intervened on is the percent of the population required to change behavior in at least one wave
bThe average percent intervened on is the average, across all waves, of the percent of the study population required to change behavior in a given wave