Table 2:
Akaike information criterion (AIC) analysis
| Model | Likelihood | No. parameters | AIC | DAIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Density dependence only | −640.5 | 23 | 1,326.9 | 79.2 |
| Weather only: | ||||
| Rain | −689.0 | 11 | 1,400.0 | 152.3 |
| Relative humidity | −660.5 | 10 | 1,341.0 | 93.2 |
| Temperature | −644.0 | 10 | 1,307.9 | 60.2 |
| Rain + relative humidity | −641.4 | 12 | 1,306.9 | 59.1 |
| Rain + temperature | −631.1 | 12 | 1,286.2 | 38.4 |
| Relative humidity + temperature | −658.1 | 11 | 1,338.3 | 90.5 |
| Rain + relative humidity + temperature | −634.6 | 13 | 1,295.3 | 47.5 |
| Density dependence + weather: | ||||
| Rain | −640.2 | 25 | 1,330.3 | 82.5 |
| Relative humidity | −601.2 | 24 | 1,250.3 | 2.54 |
| Temperature | −640.5 | 24 | 1,328.9 | 81.2 |
| Rain + relative humidity | −610.7 | 26 | 1,273.3 | 25.5 |
| Rain + temperature | −643.4 | 26 | 1,338.8 | 91.1 |
| Relative humidity + temperature | −610.1 | 25 | 1,270.3 | 22.5 |
| Rain + relative humidity + temperature | −596.9 | 27 | 1,247.8 | 0 |
Note: The overall best model is shown in boldface, while the best weather-only model is shown in italicized boldface. Sample sizes were large enough that the small sample size–corrected AIC criterion gave essentially identical values to the uncorrected AIC, so for simplicity we show only the uncorrected AIC.