. 2023 Apr 29;192(9):1562–1575. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwad106

Table 3.

Comparison of Manufacturer-Reported Assay Sensitivity and Expected Sensitivity for Selected Rounds of Each SARS-CoV-2 Serosurvey, and the Timing of the Serosurvey Relative to the Local Epidemic, 2020–2021

		Expected Sensitivity, 2 Severity Groups		Expected Sensitivity, 3 Severity Groups		Days Before Serosurvey of the X ^th Percentile of Cumulative Symptom Onsets Prior to Serosurvey ^b
Serosurvey and Round	Assay and Manufacturer-Reported Sensitivity ^a	Posterior Mean	95% CrI	Posterior Mean	95% CrI	X = 10	X = 25	X = 50	X = 75	X = 90
Italy	100% (Abbott)	0.7072	0.6169, 0.7933	0.5672	0.4504, 0.7133	57	74	89	99	106
Spain, round 1	100% (Abbott)	0.7377	0.6520, 0.8176	0.6056	0.4853, 0.7432	20	32	42	49	54
Spain, round 2	100% (Abbott)	0.7243	0.6367, 0.8069	0.5863	0.4659, 0.7277	38	51	62	70	75
US Middle Atlantic census division, round 1	99.5% (Roche)	0.9012	0.8471, 0.9402	0.8829	0.8111, 0.9372	64	100	120	130	135
US Middle Atlantic census division, round 4	99.5% (Roche)	0.9056	0.8513, 0.9441	0.8882	0.8171, 0.9407	99	140	162	172	177
US New England census division, round 1	100% (Abbott)	0.6892	0.5959, 0.7775	0.5363	0.4138, 0.6901	61	87	107	120	129
US New England census division, round 4	100% (Abbott)	0.6376	0.5444, 0.7239	0.4834	0.3641, 0.6364	84	125	148	162	171
Manaus, June 2020	100% (Abbott)	0.7245	0.6351, 0.8074	0.5652	0.4302, 0.7208	18	34	48	61	70
Manaus, December 2020	100% (Abbott)	0.4561	0.3705, 0.5412	0.3358	0.2334, 0.4666	37	86	203	234	248
Japan	100% (Abbott)^c	0.4931^e	0.4233, 0.5637	0.4026^e	0.3242, 0.5017	7	18	54	205	251
	99.5% (Roche)^d	0.5409^c	0.4660, 0.6127	0.4475^c	0.3568, 0.5541
		0.9053^d	0.8529, 0.9433	0.8901^d	0.8248, 0.9398

Abbreviations: CrI, credible interval; SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

^a Abbott (Abbott Park, Illinois) ARCHITECT; Roche (Indianapolis, Indiana) Elecsys.

^b The rightmost 5 columns represent percentiles, in days before serosurvey. For example, in Italy, 10% of all symptom onsets occurring prior to the serosurvey occurred within the 57 days before the serosurvey, and 90% of all symptom onsets occurring prior to the serosurvey occurred within the 106 days before the serosurvey.

^c Sensitivity is defined as the probability of testing positive on the Abbott assay, given infection (from a univariate model).

^d Sensitivity is defined as the probability of testing positive on the Roche assay, given infection (from a univariate model).

^e Sensitivity is defined as the probability of testing positive on both assays, given infection.