Table 2.
Characteristic | N | Percent | 10- year DPoRT risk | Predicted diabetes cases, 2025 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Overall | 22,394,011 | 100 | 9.7 | 2,177,738 |
Health sufficiency diabetes risk* | ||||
<16.5% | 18,397,958 | 82 | 6.2 | 1,136,574 |
≥16.5% | 3,996,053 | 18 | 26.1 | 1,041,164 |
Health equality diabetes risk** | ||||
Low | 9,302,101 | 41 | 2.5 | 232,428 |
Medium | 9,095,857 | 41 | 9.9 | 904,145 |
High | 3,996,053 | 18 | 26.1 | 1,041,164 |
Gender | ||||
Women | 11,297,217 | 50 | 8.2 | 926,141 |
Men | 11,096,794 | 50 | 11.3 | 1,251,597 |
Age | ||||
<45 | 10,341,848 | 46 | 4.7 | 481,770 |
45-64 | 8,216,239 | 37 | 13.5 | 1,111,142 |
≥65 | 3,835,925 | 17 | 15.3 | 584,825 |
BMI | ||||
<23 kg/m2 | 6,264,712 | 28 | 3.3 | 207,289 |
23-24 kg/m2 | 4,175,076 | 19 | 5.9 | 248,038 |
25-29 kg/m2 | 7,740,505 | 35 | 10.6 | 820,648 |
30-34 kg/m2 | 2,989,928 | 13 | 19.1 | 571,636 |
≥35 kg/m2 | 1,223,791 | 5 | 27.0 | 330,127 |
Hypertension | ||||
No | 18,898,249 | 84 | 7.7 | 1,448,719 |
Yes | 3,495,763 | 16 | 20.85 | 729,019 |
Heart disease | ||||
No | 21,529,635 | 96 | 9.3 | 2,003,320 |
Yes | 840,483 | 4 | 20.4 | 171,482 |
Ethnicity | ||||
Non-white | 5,232,304 | 23 | 11.6 | 606,881 |
White | 17,161,708 | 77 | 9.2 | 1,570,857 |
Immigrant | ||||
No | 16,575,814 | 74 | 9.2 | 1,526,799 |
Yes | 5,808,398 | 26 | 11.2 | 650,053 |
Current smoker | ||||
No | 18,150,605 | 81 | 9.8 | 1,780,783 |
Yes | 4,214,538 | 19 | 9.4 | 393,849 |
Education | ||||
Less than high school | 2,155,824 | 10 | 15.0 | 323,657 |
High school grad | 4,365,443 | 19 | 12.3 | 534,605 |
Trades/certificate below Bachelor's | 8,479,506 | 38 | 9.1 | 768,956 |
Bachelor's degree or above | 7,393,239 | 33 | 7.5 | 550,521 |
Income | ||||
Quintile 1- low | 3,849,408 | 17 | 10.7 | 412,529 |
Quintile 2 | 4,061,715 | 18 | 10.5 | 426,468 |
Quintile 3 | 4,433,547 | 20 | 9.9 | 438,267 |
Quintile 4 | 4,866,658 | 22 | 9.2 | 449,075 |
Quintile 5 - high | 5,182,683 | 23 | 8.7 | 451,400 |
*In the health sufficiency diabetes risk scenarios, diabetes risk is dichotomized into above or below the empirically-determined DPoRT high-risk threshold (≥16.5%), where the equity goal is to reduce diabetes risk below that threshold in the entire population.
**In the health equality diabetes risk scenario, diabetes risk was categorized into low (<5% DPoRT risk), medium (5%-<16.5% DPoRT risk) and high (≥16.5% DPoRT risk) diabetes risk using previously defined risk groups (Rivera et al., 2015; Rosella et al., 2014) to enable weight loss interventions to be targeted to medium and high-risk groups.
Health sufficiency: equity is ‘achieved’ when diabetes risk in the entire population is reduced below a threshold (i.e., 16.5%), beyond which remaining inequalities are not considered ethically important to eliminate. Health equality: equity is ‘achieved’ when average diabetes risk is equalized to that observed in the lowest diabetes risk group. Social-health sufficiency: equity is ‘achieved’ when diabetes risk co-varying with lower educational attainment is reduced below a threshold (i.e., 16.5%), beyond which remaining inequalities are not considered ethically important to eliminate. Social-health equality: equity is ‘achieved’ when diabetes risk among those with lower educational attainment is equalized to that observed with higher educational attainment.