Table 3.

Esophageal cancer standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) after a negative endoscopy finding.

	Time after baseline endoscopy screening with negative endoscopy findings
	0–5 years			5.1–10 years			Entire follow-up perioda
	No. of observed cases	No. of expected cases	SIR or SMRb (95% CI)	No. of observed cases	No. of expected cases	SIR or SMRb (95% CI)	No. of observed cases	No. of expected cases	SIR or SMRb (95% CI)
Incidence
All	62	140	0.44 (0.32–0.59)	102	137	0.74 (0.59–0.93)	202	378	0.53 (0.40–0.70)
Sex
Male	46	93	0.49 (0.37–0.65)	71	86	0.83 (0.66–1.02)	139	243	0.57 (0.43–0.74)
Female	16	47	0.34 (0.24–0.47)	31	51	0.61 (0.47–0.78)	63	135	0.47 (0.34–0.62)
Age, yr
40–49	4	12	0.33 (0.23–0.47)	7	20	0.35 (0.24–0.49)	13	50	0.26 (0.17–0.38)
50–59	28	57	0.49 (0.36–0.65)	38	63	0.60 (0.46–0.78)	85	165	0.52 (0.38–0.68)
60–69	30	70	0.43 (0.31–0.58)	57	55	1.04 (0.85–1.26)	104	162	0.64 (0.49–0.82)
Family history of EC
No	52	121	0.43 (0.31–0.58)	83	117	0.71 (0.55–0.89)	169	327	0.52 (0.39–0.68)
Yes	10	18	0.56 (0.42–0.72)	19	20	0.95 (0.77–1.16)	33	50	0.66 (0.51–0.84)
Mortality
All	20	84	0.24 (0.15–0.35)	61	89	0.69 (0.53–0.86)	105	243	0.43 (0.31–0.58)
Sex
Male	16	58	0.28 (0.18–0.40)	45	58	0.78 (0.61–0.96)	78	162	0.48 (0.36–0.64)
Female	4	26	0.15 (0.09–0.25)	16	31	0.52 (0.38–0.67)	27	82	0.33 (0.23–0.46)
Age, yr
40–49	0	7	0	1	11	0.09 (0.04–0.18)	3	27	0.11 (0.06–0.20)
50–59	11	32	0.34 (0.24–0.48)	21	37	0.57 (0.43–0.74)	39	97	0.40 (0.29–0.55)
60–69	9	45	0.20 (0.12–0.31)	39	42	0.93 (0.75–1.14)	63	119	0.53 (0.40–0.69)
Family history of EC
No	18	72	0.25 (0.16–0.37)	51	76	0.67 (0.52–0.85)	90	210	0.43 (0.31–0.58)
Yes	2	11	0.18 (0.11–0.29)	10	13	0.77 (0.61–0.97)	15	32	0.47 (0.34–0.62)

CI = confidence interval; EC = esophageal cancer; SIR = standardized incidence ratio; SMR = standardized mortality ratio; yr = year.

^aThe median follow-up time was 10.62 years.

^bSIR was estimated for incidence and SMR was estimated for mortality.