Table 3:
Validation estimates by province and quarter: emergency department cohort
| Measure | Estimate, % (95% CI) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 April 2020–June 2020 |
Q2 July 2020–September 2020 |
Q3 October 2020–December 2020 |
Q4 January 2021–March 2021 |
|
| British Columbia | ||||
| Sensitivity | 52.4 (46.4–58.4) | 44.3 (40.8–47.9) | 31.8 (30.3–33.2) | 28.7 (27.2–30.2) |
| Specificity | 99.8 (99.8–99.9) | 99.7 (99.7–99.8) | 98.2 (98.1–98.3) | 98.1 (98.0–98.3) |
| PPV | 79.1 (73.1–85.1) | 80.0 (76.2,83.8) | 61.4 (59.2–63.6) | 58.1 (55.8–60.4) |
| NPV | 99.4 (99.3–99.5) | 98.6 (98.4–98.7) | 94.0 (93.8–94.3) | 93.8 (93.6–94.1) |
| Youden Index | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| Manitoba | ||||
| Sensitivity | 0 (0–21.9) | 2.6 (0–5.18) | 9.9 (8.6–11.1) | 11.6 (9.5–13.6) |
| Specificity | 99.9 (99.8–99.9) | 99.8 (99.7–99.9) | 97.3 (97.0–97.5) | 98.9 (98.7–99.0) |
| PPV | 0 (0–37.1) | 12.1 (1.0–23.3) | 34.2 (30.6–37.9) | 39.9 (34.1–45.7) |
| NPV | 99.8 (99.8–99.8) | 98.9 (98.7–99.1) | 88.3 (87.8–88.8) | 94.5 (94.2–94.9) |
| Youden Index | 0 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Ontario | ||||
| Sensitivity | 61.0 (59.7–62.2) | 52.3 (50.6–54.1) | 59.0 (58.4–59.7) | 52.3 (51.6–53.0) |
| Specificity | 99.4 (99.3–99.4) | 99.8 (99.8–99.9) | 98.9 (98.8–98.9) | 97.9 (97.9–98.0) |
| PPV | 77.0 (75.8–78.2) | 79.6 (77.8–81.3) | 81.3 (80.7–82.0) | 70.0 (69.2–70.7) |
| NPV | 98.6 (98.6–98.7) | 99.4 (99.4–99.5) | 96.6 (95.6–96.7) | 95.7 (95.6–95.8) |
| Youden Index | 0.60 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 0.50 |
Note: CI = confidence interval, NPV = negative predictive value, PPV = positive predictive value, Q = quarter.