Table 4:
Validation estimates by province and quarter: outpatient cohort
| Measure | Estimate, % (95% CI) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 April 2020–June 2020 |
Q2 July 2020–September 2020 |
Q3 October 2020–December 2020 |
Q4 January 2021–March 2021 |
|
| British Columbia | ||||
| Sensitivity | 10.2 (8.6–11.8) | 6.1 (5.4–6.7) | 2.4 (2.2–2.5) | 2.5 (2.3–2.6) |
| Specificity | 88.5 (88.3–88.7) | 91.7 (91.6–91.8) | 96.9 (96.8–96.9) | 98.2 (98.2–98.3) |
| PPV | 1.0 (0.9–1.2) | 1.5 (1.4–1.7) | 5.6 (5.2–5.9) | 12.9 (12.2–13.7) |
| NPV | 98.8 (98.8–98.9) | 97.9 (97.8–97.9) | 92.7 (92.6–92.7) | 90.5 (90.4–90.6) |
| Youden Index | –0.01 | –0.02 | –0.01 | –0.01 |
| Manitoba | ||||
| Sensitivity | 1.3 (0–3.8) | 1.7 (0.84–2.5) | 5.0 (4.5–5.4) | 6.3 (5.5–7.2) |
| Specificity | 99.5 (99.4–99.5) | 99.7 (99.7–99.8) | 96.7 (96.5–96.8) | 95.2 (95.0–95.3) |
| PPV | 0.6 (0–1.7) | 8.3 (4.3–12.4) | 14.0 (12.8–15.1) | 5.7 (5.0–6.5) |
| NPV | 99.8 (99.7–99.8) | 98.7 (98.6–98.7) | 90.3 (90.1–90.4) | 95.6 (95.5–95.8) |
| Youden Index | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Ontario | ||||
| Sensitivity | 21.1 (20.6–21.7) | 20.1 (19.3–20.9) | 33.0 (32.7–33.3) | 35.6 (35.3–35.9) |
| Specificity | 92.5 (92.4–92.5) | 93.7 (93.7–93.8) | 92.0 (92.0–92.1) | 93.5 (93.4–93.5) |
| PPV | 8.5 (8.2–8.7) | 3.2 (3.1–3.3) | 22.5 (22.2–22.7) | 31.1 (30.8–31.4) |
| NPV | 97.3 (97.2–97.3) | 99.1 (99.1–99.2) | 95.2 (95.1–95.2) | 94.6 (94.6–94.6) |
| Youden Index | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.29 |
Note: CI = confidence interval, NPV = negative predictive value, PPV = positive predictive value, Q = quarter.