Extended Data Fig. 4. Predictions of diversity from neutral model parameterised on both Carboniferous and Permian diversity.

Simulated tetrapod diversity patterns over time compared against the fossil record (that is face-value, unstandardized counts of species). Predictions of tetrapod biodiversity patterns are produced by a neutral model parameterised separately for the late Carboniferous (pre-307 Ma) and Permian (post-307 Ma). The shaded areas surrounding the dashed lines represent the variation in the five best fitting simulations. The dashed vertical line at 307 Ma indicates the timing of the CRC. For definitions of diversity measures see Table 1 (main text). Interval abbreviations are as in Extended Data Fig. 1.