Table 1: Past and future CMI-PB annual prediction challenges.
Our commitment involves conducting four annual challenges. The first challenge was completed in May 2022 with participation from the CMI-PB consortium. The second challenge will be announced in August 2023 and will feature the CMI-PB consortium along with a limited number of invited contestants from outside the consortium. We will involve members of the public in the third and fourth challenges. The first challenge included training data from a previously published study14 and newly generated test data. Similarly, we will use both the training and test data from previous challenges as the training data for future challenges and generate new data for testing purposes.
| Annual prediction challenge title | Contestants | Number of subjects | Current status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training dataset | Test dataset | ||||
| 1 |
First Challenge: Internal dry run |
CMI-PB consortium | 60 (28 aP + 32 wP) | 36 (19 aP + 17 wP) | Concluded in May 2022 |
| 2 |
Second Challenge: Invited challenge |
Invited contestants | 96 (47 aP + 49 wP) | 23 (13 aP + 10 wP) | Will be announced in September 2023 |
| 3 |
Third Challenge: Open Challenge 1 |
Public | 119 (60 aP + 59 wP) | 32 (16 aP + 16 wP) | Will be announced in April 2024 |
| 4 |
Fourth Challenge: Open Challenge 2 |
Public | 151 (76 aP + 85 wP) | 32 (16 aP + 16 wP)* | Will be announced in December 2024 |
*
Goal