Table 2.
Musculoskeletal pain in individuals aged 50 years and older in the United Kingdom.
| Sample estimates | Predicted UK population estimates | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pain variable | Prevalence, N (%) | Re-occurrence risk ratio (95% CI)a | Incidence rate/1,000 person-years (95% CI)b | Prevalence, Nc | Prevalence, N/1,000d | ||||
| Pain episodee | 1989 | 1996 | Both years | 2004 | 2012 | 2030 | 2030 | ||
| Back pain | |||||||||
| Women | 308 (52.5) | 233 (39.7) | 155 (26.4) | 1.80 (1.58–2.02) | 18.98 (15.11–23.56) | 4,307,258 | 4,704,549 | 5,788,721 | 397 |
| Knee pain | |||||||||
| Women | 189 (32.2) | 240 (40.9) | 115 (19.6) | 1.94 (1.75–2.12) | 30.42 (25.43–36.12) | 4,436,661 | 4,845,887 | 5,962,631 | 409 |
| Hand pain | |||||||||
| Women | 203 (34.6) | 303 (51.6) | 135 (23.0) | 1.52 (1.37–1.67) | 40.88 (35.04–47.43) | 5,601,284 | 6,117,932 | 7,527,821 | 516 |
| Hip pain | |||||||||
| Women | — | 156 (26.6) | — | — | — | 2,883,830 | 3,149,827 | 3,875,710 | 266 |
| Foot pain | |||||||||
| Women | — | 135 (23.0) | — | — | — | 2,495,622 | 2,725,811 | 3,353,980 | 230 |
| Pain when walking | 2004 | 2012 | Both years | 2004 | 2012 | 2030 | 2030 | ||
| Back pain | |||||||||
| Women | 517 (23.4) | 520 (23.5) | 293 (13.2) | 4.23 (4.09–4.38) | 12.82 (11.23–14.57) | 2,535,083 | 2,784,980 | 3,407,014 | 234 |
| Men | 265 (15.3) | 259 (14.9) | 127 (7.3) | 5.34 (5.14–5.55) | 9.50 (7.98–11.23) | 1,419,067 | 1,571,477 | 2,011,780 | 153 |
| Knee pain | |||||||||
| Women | 504 (22.8) | 473 (21.4) | 269 (12.2) | 4.47 (4.32–4.62) | 11.52 (10.02–13.19) | 2,471,338 | 2,533,261 | 3,321,344 | 228 |
| Men | 285 (16.4) | 251 (14.5) | 128 (7.4) | 5.30 (5.09–5.51) | 8.86 (7.39–10.53) | 1,526,166 | 1,522,938 | 2,163,613 | 164 |
| Hip pain | |||||||||
| Women | 416 (18.8) | 349 (15.8) | 175 (7.9) | 4.34 (4.16–4.53) | 9.83 (8.45–11.37) | 2,039,835 | 1,869,150 | 2,741,427 | 188 |
| Men | 186 (10.7) | 147 (8.5) | 69 (4.0) | 7.37 (7.08–7.66) | 5.62 (4.47–6.97) | 996,024 | 891,920 | 1,412,042 | 107 |
| Foot pain | |||||||||
| Women | 380 (17.2) | 288 (13.0) | 141 (6.4) | 4.63 (4.42–4.83) | 8.30 (7.04–9.73) | 1,863,311 | 1,542,450 | 2,504,188 | 172 |
| Men | 164 (9.4) | 147 (8.5) | 58 (3.3) | 6.25 (5.96–6.54) | 6.41 (5.18–7.85) | 878,215 | 891,920 | 1,245,026 | 94 |
The re-occurrence risk ratio presents the ratio of the pain risk/probability at the second follow-up among those who reported the same pain type at the first assessment to the outcome probability among those who did not report the pain at the first follow-up.
The incidence rate is the number of new cases at the second follow-up by the total number of person-years, expressed per 1,000 person-years.
The predicted UK population estimates were obtained using 1996 pain episode, and 2004 and 2012 pain when walking estimates and applied to 2004, 2012, and 2030 UK population. According to the ONS, there were 9,967,191 women older than 50 years in 1989 and 10,139,958 in 1996 in the United Kingdom. In the same age group, there were 10,851,333 women and 9,296,226 men in 2004, and 11,852,232 women and 10,533,146 men in 2012. The 2020-based estimates for the UK 2030 population indicate that there will be 14,583,601 women and 13,179,059 men older than 50 years.
The prevalence of musculoskeletal pain in 2030 in the United Kingdom presented as number (rounded to an integer) of cases per 1,000 individuals.
In the Chingford study, the presented estimates of pain episodes were based on 587 women aged 50 years and older. There were no reports on hip and foot pain in 1989.