Table 1.
Cohort characteristics of mIA definition (n = 819) at both immediate next visit and at 2 ± 5 years following first mIA status (n = 638)
| Stringency at definition | No. (% of all mIA) | Age at definition, years Median (IQR) | Stage 3 by 15 years n (%) | Years to stage 3 Median (IQR) | 5-year incidence % (95% CI) | 10-year incidence % (95% CI) | 15-year incidence % (95% CI) | PPV, 15 years % (95% CI) | SENS, 15 years % (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sIA/Persistent | 1,047 (N/A) | 4.8 (2.0–8.1) | 100 (10) | 4.3 (2.3–7.1) | 15 (12–17) | 32 (30–35) | 45 (40–52) | 53 (47–59) | 35 (33–38) |
| mIA/Any | 45 (6) | 8.5 (5.3–12.1) | 5 (11) | 4.4 (2.5–5.7) | 8 (2–22) | 18 (5–40) | 18 (5–40) | 38 (0–84) | 26 (6–46) |
| mIA/SameVisit | 64 (8) | 3.5 (2.0–5.3) | 20 (31) | 5.2 (3.0–7.1) | 18 (15–35) | 40 (22–50) | 50 (35–60) | 87 (69–100) | 47 (41–52) |
| mIA/Persistent/1 | 126 (15) | 5.1 (2.7–8.9) | 57 (45) | 4.8 (2.8–8.4) | 25 (18–35) | 45 (35–55) | 75 (60–85) | 72 (57–88) | 42 (37–47) |
| mIA/Persistent/2 | 584 (71) | 3.0 (1.8–5.9) | 409 (70) | 3.8 (1.9–6.3) | 48 (42–50) | 75 (70–80) | 88 (85–92) | 85 (80–91) | 46 (45–48) |
| Stringency at 2 years | No. (% of all mIA) | Age at follow-up, years Median (IQR) | Stage 3 by 15 years n (%) | Years to stage 3 Median (IQR) | Cumulative incidence, 5 years % (95% CI) | Cumulative incidence, 10 years % (95% CI) | Cumulative incidence, 15 years % (95% CI) | PPV, 15 years % (95% CI) | SENS, 15 years % (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mIA/Any | 32 (5) | 9.1 (5.3–12.1) | 3 (9) | 2.5 (1.7–5.4) | 6 (1–25) | 18 (3–55) | 18 (3–55) | ND | ND |
| mIA/SameVisit | 35 (6) | 3.5 (2.0–6.5) | 4 (11) | 2.7 (1.4–4.1) | 15 (5–25) | 12 (5–20) | 12 (5–20) | 61 (0–100) | 36 (12–59) |
| mIA/Persistent/1 | 60 (9) | 5.8 (3.0–10.5) | 14 (23) | 3.5 (2.8–7.4) | 16 (8–28) | 30 (20–50) | 40 (25–60) | 77 (41–100) | 43 (32–54) |
| mIA/Persistent/2 | 511 (80) | 3.3 (2.0–6.0) | 345 (68) | 5.2 (3.4–7.4) | 30 (28–32) | 70 (65–75) | 85 (80–90) | 83 (77–88) | 45 (43–47) |
Participants who were sIA/Persistent (n = 1,047) at seroconversion are included at the top of the table for comparison; this group includes participants who may later develop mIA. All incidences reported are cumulative incidence. Stringency at definition is at immediate next visit after achieving mIA status, and mIA groups are exclusive by the most stringent definition at the time of the initial mIA status. Stringency at 2 years is at visit 2 ± 0.5 years after achieving mIA status. Categories are listed by increasing stringency. Age, age at mIA status; N/A, not applicable as sIA/Persistent is not a subgroup of mIA definitions; ND, not determined due to insufficient n.