Table 2.
Performance of cytology and HPV testing to detect CIN3+ and CIN2+ diagnosed at enrolment by age.
| Cytology |
HPV |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All women | 30–39 years | 40–49 years | 50–64 years | p-value | All women | 30–39 years | 40–49 years | 50–64 years | p-value | |
| Test positivity | 1308 (4.3%) | 619 (5.3%) | 451 (4.6%) | 238 (2.6%) | 3993 (13.0%) | 1961 (16.7%) | 1124 (11.4%) | 908 (10.1%) | ||
| Performance characteristics | ||||||||||
| CIN3+ | ||||||||||
| Sensitivity | 48.5% (43.9–53.1) | 48.5% (42.5–54.5) | 50.6% (42.8–48.5) | 42.6% (30.0–55.9) | 0.60 | 98.1% (96.4–99.1) | 98.5% (96.5–99.5) | 97.4% (94.1–99.2) | 98.1% (92.1–99.9) | 0.80 |
| Specificity | 96.5% (96.3–96.7) | 95.9% (95.5–96.3) | 96.2% (95.8–96.6) | 97.6% (97.3–97.9) | <0.0001 | 88.7% (88.3–89.0) | 85.9% (85.2–86.5) | 90.3% (89.7–90.8) | 90.6% (89.9–91.1) | <0.0001 |
| PPV | 17.4% (15.4–19.6) | 20.2% (17.5–23.8) | 17.3% (14.0–21.0) | 9.7% (6.3–13.8) | <0.0001 | 11.5% (10.6–12.6) | 13.2% (11.7–14.7) | 13.3% (11.4–15.4) | 5.8% (4.4–7.5) | <0.0001 |
| cNPV | 0.8% (0.7–0.9) | 1.2% (1.0–1.4) | 0.81% (0.6–1.0) | 0.35% (0.2–0.5) | <0.0001 | 0.03% (0.02–0.06) | 0.04% (0.01–0.09) | 0.05% (0.01–0.11) | 0.01% (0–0.05) | 0.38 |
| TP | 228 | 127 | 78 | 23 | 461 | 258 | 150 | 53 | ||
| FP | 1041 | 466 | 364 | 211 | 3394 | 1611 | 940 | 843 | ||
| TN | 28,949 | 10,942 | 9296 | 8711 | 26,596 | 9797 | 8720 | 8079 | ||
| FN | 242 | 135 | 76 | 31 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | ||
| CIN2+a | ||||||||||
| Sensitivity | 43.3% (39.4–47.4) | 42.9% (37.8–48.0) | 45.1% (38.2–52.1) | 40.9% (29.6–52.9) | 0.80 | 97.2% (95.6–98.4) | 98.0% (96.2–99.2) | 95.3% (91.8–97.7) | 98.5% (93.5–99.9) | 0.20 |
| Specificity | 96.5% (96.3–96.7) | 95.9% (95.5–96.3) | 96.2% (95.8–96.6) | 97.6% (97.3–97.9) | <0.0001 | 88.7% (88.3–89.0) | 85.9% (85.2–86.5) | 90.3% (89.7–90.8) | 90.6% (89.9–91.1) | <0.0001 |
| PPV | 20.4% (18.3–22.7) | 24.7% (21.4–28.2) | 19.3% (15.8–23.1) | 11.3% (7.7–15.8) | <0.0001 | 15.0% (13.9–16.1) | 17.8% (16.2–19.6) | 16.4% (14.3–18.6) | 7.2% (5.6–9.0) | <0.0001 |
| cNPV | 1.2% (1.1–1.3) | 1.8% (1.6–2.1) | 1.1% (0.9–1.4) | 0.5% (0.3–0.6) | <0.0001 | 0.06% (0.04–0.1) | 0.07% (0.03–0.14) | 0.1% (0.05–0.2) | 0.01% (0–0.05) | 0.03 |
| TP | 267 | 153 | 87 | 27 | 599 | 350 | 184 | 65 | ||
| FP | 1041 | 466 | 364 | 211 | 3394 | 1611 | 940 | 843 | ||
| TN | 28,949 | 10,942 | 9296 | 8711 | 26,596 | 9797 | 8720 | 8079 | ||
| FN | 349 | 204 | 106 | 39 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 1 | ||
Estimates with 95% confidence intervals shown. CIN2 cases excluded from specificity calculations.
p-values to assess difference in performance indicators between age groups by means of a logistic regression model.
a
Includes 1 CIN2 case detected in women randomly selected for colposcopy; TP: True positives; FP: False positives; TN: True negatives; FN: False negatives.