Figure 2.

Monkeypox virus decay in human blood, semen, serum, saliva, urine, and feces solutions deposited on surfaces. A) Regression lines showing predicted exponential decay of virus titers over time compared with measured (directly inferred) virus titers. Points show posterior median measured titers; black lines show 95% credible intervals. Colored lines indicate random draws from joint posterior distribution of exponential decay rate (negative of the slope) and intercept (initial virus titer), visualizing range of possible decay patterns for each experimental condition. Top row shows experiments in bulk solution (liquid); bottom row shows experiments on surfaces. For surface experiments, light blue lines show the inferred titers during the wet phase, when visible residual moisture remains on the surface; red lines show the inferred dry phase, when evaporation has reached a state of quasi-equilibrium. The exact breakpoint was inferred from the data with a previous measurement from the last day of observable liquid. B) Inferred virus half-lives by condition and state. Dots show the posterior median half-life estimate and black lines show 68% (thick) and 95% (thin) credible intervals. Violin plots show the shape of posterior distribution. Dark blue show inferred virus half-lives in bulk solution, light blue on surfaces during wet phase, and red on surfaces during dry phase.