Figure 3.

Monkeypox virus decay in different human serum dilutions in Dulbecco modified Eagle medium. A) Regression lines showing predicted exponential decay of virus titers over time compared with measured (directly inferred) virus titers. Points show posterior median measured titers; black lines show 95% credible intervals. Colored lines indicate random draws from joint posterior distribution of the exponential decay rate (negative of the slope) and intercept (initial virus titer), visualizing range of possible decay patterns for each experimental condition. B) Inferred virus half-lives by condition and state. Dots show posterior median half-life estimate and black lines show 68% (thick) and 95% (thin) credible intervals. Violin plots show the shape of posterior distribution of virus half-lives.