Figure 3.

Simulation shows that confirmatory majority rule accelerates clinical trials and improves efficacy estimation. Curves plot trade-off between estimated efficacy and clinical trial duration, where longitudinal samples are used to detect infection. A vaccine efficacy trial for a self-limiting infection (resolved in a median of 1.4 months) was simulated, assuming true efficacy of 85%. The trial proceeds until a pre-specified number of cases are collected. Each curve was calculated by simulating a range of sampling frequencies. Dense simulations were performed to generate curves; points and accompanying text highlight selected sampling frequencies. In this scenario, the confirmatory majority rule strategy (upper curve) is only vulnerable to noticeable efficacy dilution at extreme sampling frequencies (e.g., three times a day). See Methods Section 2.4 for all parameters.