Table 2. Input data length scoring.

* indicates the best performing model in each pair.

Model	Modification	Range (days)	Days per knot	Target	Calibration (95%)	Bias	Interval score
parametric	data driven	30	14	onset date	0.93	-0.265	2.30
parametric	data driven	60*	14	onset date	0.94*	0.0352*	2.02*
parametric	data driven	30	14	specimen date	0.94	-0.0647	3.96
parametric	data driven	60*	14	specimen date	0.94	-0.0604*	2.67*
non-parametric	data driven	30	14	onset date	0.93	0.110*	2.41
non-parametric	data driven	60*	14	onset date	0.94*	0.187	2.03*
non-parametric	data driven	30*	14	specimen date	0.93*	0.118*	6.57
non-parametric	data driven	60	14	specimen date	0.98	0.131	3.98*