Table 3. Knots scoring.

Model	Modification	Range (days)	Days per knot	Target	Calibration (95%)	Bias	Interval score
parametric	data driven	60	14*	onset date	0.94*	0.0352	2.02*
parametric	data driven	60	7	onset date	0.93	0.0018*	2.10
parametric	data driven	60	14*	specimen date	0.94	-0.0604*	3.67*
parametric	data driven	60	7	specimen date	0.95*	-0.0929	3.86
non-parametric	data driven	60	14*	onset date	0.94	0.187*	2.03
non-parametric	data driven	60	7	onset date	0.96	0.213	1.98*
non-parametric	data driven	30	14	specimen date	0.93	0.118	6.57
non-parametric	data driven	30	7*	specimen date	0.94*	0.102*	5.97*

* indicates the best performing model in each pair.