Table 6.
Variation of excess relative risk per Gy or per Gy2 (and 95% CI) by age at exposure and time since exposure fitted to Japanese atomic bomb survivors plus diagnostically exposed cohorts and therapeutically exposed cohortsa.
| ERR/Gy | P value, heterogeneity | ERR/Gy2 | P value, heterogeneity | ERR/Gy | P value, heterogeneity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age at exposure (years) | ||||||
| Age at exposure (y) | LSS + diagnostic cohorts | Therapeutic cohorts | All cohorts | |||
| Acute myeloid leukaemia | ||||||
| 0–4.99 | 14.50 (4.558, 39.06) | 0.0267 | 0.524b (−0.470c, 1.518c) | 0.9429b | 2.035 (0.638, 4.571) | 0.6724 |
| 5–9.99 | 4.972 (0.316, 18.79) | 0.527b (−1.406c, 2.461c) | 1.734 (0.142, 4.913) | |||
| 10–14.99 | 3.769 (0.504, 11.22) | 0.238b (−3.852c, 4.327c) | 1.133 (−0.175, 4.146) | |||
| ≥15 | 0.496 (−1.265, 3.614) | −0.199b (−48.08c, 47.68c) | 0.370 (−1.218c, 3.113) | |||
| Chronic myeloid leukaemia | ||||||
| 0–4.99 | 9.691 (1.388, 39.31) | 0.5431 | −0.028b (−0.220c, 0.164c) | 0.9991b | 1.289 (−0.136, 5.069) | 0.9167 |
| 5–9.99 | 12.39 (2.262, 43.49) | −0.038b (−2.035c, 1.976) | 1.802 (0.043, 6.991) | |||
| 10–14.99 | 4.527 (−4.584, 22.83) | −0.026b (−6.487c, 6.435c) | 3.585 (−3.029c, 15.51) | |||
| ≥15 | 2.538 (−2.699, 11.95) | −0.060b (−72.54c, 72.42c) | 2.290 (−2.575c, 10.84) | |||
| Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia | ||||||
| 0–4.99 | 40.24 (8.583, >100) | 0.4519 | −0.028b (−0.066c, 1.513) | 0.9993b | 4.546 (0.802, 14.58) | 0.7322 |
| 5–9.99 | 55.52 (9.779, >100) | −0.031b (−1.968c, 6.594) | 6.773 (0.956, 23.76) | |||
| 10–14.99 | 12.28 (1.478, 56.39) | −0.089b (−4.568c, 14.65) | 5.679 (0.720, 20.84) | |||
| ≥15 | 16.59 (3.782, 71.33) | −0.261b (−52.82c, 52.30c) | 11.68 (2.837, 40.88) | |||
| Years since exposure | ||||||
| Years since exposure | LSS + diagnostic cohorts | Therapeutic cohorts | All cohorts | |||
| Acute myeloid leukaemia | ||||||
| 2–4.99 | 77.53 (−96.25c, >100) | 0.0787 | −0.074 (−1.613c, 30.39) | 0.9905 | 10.98 (−18.09c, >100) | 0.0513 |
| 5–9.99 | 13.99 (2.196, 61.37) | −0.080 (−0.510c, 29.24) | 9.687 (1.740, 35.55) | |||
| 10–14.99 | 14.29 (1.793, 67.23) | 0.011 (−2.682c, 20.82) | 7.875 (1.093, 29.30) | |||
| ≥15 | 2.320 (0.589, 5.695) | 0.532 (0.003, 1.681) | 0.916 (0.204, 2.085) | |||
| Chronic myeloid leukaemia | ||||||
| 2–4.99 | 98.16 (<−100c, >100) | 0.0856 | −0.038b (−11.07c, 10.99c) | 0.9928b | −0.283b (−16.66c, 16.10c) | 0.0108b |
| 5–9.99 | 28.88 (6.531, >100) | −0.032b (−2.973c, 2.908c) | 9.021b (−6.956c, 25.00c) | |||
| 10–14.99 | 3.331 (−9.238c, 38.75) | 0.024b (−5.382c, 5.430c) | 3.532b (−6.283c, 13.35c) | |||
| ≥15 | 2.857 (0.130, 9.988) | −0.028b (−0.173c, 0.117c) | 0.725b (−0.917c, 2.367c) | |||
| Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia | ||||||
| 2–4.99 | >100 (18.00, >100) | 0.0062 | −0.040b (−2.787c, 2.707c) | 0.9993b | −0.282 (−3.899c, 3.335c) | 0.0017 |
| 5–9.99 | >100 (27.15, >100) | −0.039b (−5.082c, 5.004c) | 29.88 (10.84, 66.12c) | |||
| 10–14.99 | >100 (25.15, >100) | −0.066b (−5.809c, 36.65) | 27.73 (−11.73c, 67.19c) | |||
| ≥15 | 4.130 (0.216, 18.80) | −0.027b (−0.277c, 0.223c) | 1.407 (−0.136, 5.062) | |||
aThe four diagnostically exposed cohorts were the Massachusetts + Canadian TB fluoroscopy, US scoliosis, UK-NCI CT, and the five therapeutically exposed cohorts were the French, Göteborg+Stockholm haemangioma, Israeli tinea capitis and Rochester thymus irradiated. Semi-parametric relative risk models (as given by expressions (C4) and (C5)) (Appendix C) were fitted, stratifying by cohort, sex, age and year of follow-up (using intervals of age and year of follow-up defined by person-year table, as in Appendix A Table A1).
bIndications of lack of convergence.
cWald-based confidence limit.