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[Preprint]. 2023 Sep 20:2023.09.19.23295806. [Version 1] doi: 10.1101/2023.09.19.23295806

Figure 2. Effects of reactive, focal malaria interventions.

Figure 2.

a) Definition of effects in incidence analyses. b) Definition of effects in prevalence analyses. c) Effects on incidence estimated with hierarchical TMLE. All incidence outcome models were fit with cohort-level data except for models of spillover effects of rfMDA vs. RACD and rfMDA + RAVC vs. RACD only. Models were adjusted for covariates that were screened separately for each model using a likelihood ratio test. Confidence intervals shown here do not account for potential outcome correlation. For rfMDA and RACD arms, the incidence analysis includes the period from 0–35 days following index case detection for direct effects and 21–56 days for spillover effects. For rfMDA+RAVC and RAVC only arms, the analysis includes the period from 0–6 months following index case detection for direct effects and 17 days to 6 months for spillover effects. Total effects analyses include the person-time for the direct effects and spillover effects analyses. For incidence analyses, direct effects include treated in target zone, spillover effects include intervention non-recipients up to 1km from an index case, and total effects include all individuals (intervention recipients and non-recipients) up to 1km from index case. d) Effects on prevalence estimated with TMLE using individual-level data; standard errors were adjusted for clustering at the enumeration area level. Models were unadjusted because there were fewer than 10 malaria cases per variable. Direct effects include individuals who resided within 500m of any intervention recipients, spillover effects include individuals with no intervention recipients < 500m and any intervention recipients 500m-3km, and total effects include individuals with any intervention recipients <3km during the study. In c) and d), % effectiveness was calculated as the ratio of incidence or prevalence between study arms minus 1 × 100%. The upper bound of the 95% CI for the combined intervention direct effect was truncated from its original value of 381%.