FIGURE 3.

Summer wind speeds did not have a strong influence on Manx shearwater rates of adult survival at Copeland (grey square) or Skomer Island (black triangle) (Table 1). However, a piece‐wise regression analysis (dashed black line) indicates that a negative effect of wind may occur above wind speeds of 3.04 m/s (95% CI: 2.86, 3.35; breakpoint estimate with horizontal 95% CI shown at top of graph). The survival estimates were obtained from the CJS model including summer wind speed as a covariate, vertical error bars represent the 95% credible intervals.