Table 5.

LOOCV scheme. Coefficient of determination ($R^2$) for test set and error model parameters obtained for different models. The parameter $\sigma$ denotes standard deviation, $\beta$ denotes shape parameter, and $\gamma$ denotes the skew parameter. The parameter $\sigma$ was derived from the scale parameter $\varphi$ following Box and Tiao (1973).

Model	Coefficient of determination ($R^2$)	Error model parameters ($\sigma$, $\beta$, $\gamma$)
10-Day lead time forecast
Without multiple lag predictor variables
LASSO	0.55	(0.43, 0.60, 1.02)
ANN	0.55	(0.44, 0.49, 1.01)
RF	0.61	(0.41, 0.49, 1.01)
EA	0.61	(0.41, 0.38, 1.02)
With multiple lag predictor variables
LASSO	0.60	(0.40, 0.54, 1.03)
ANN	0.59	(0.42, 0.44, 1.02)
RF	0.62	(0.40, 0.19, 1.03)
EA	0.64	(0.39, 0.52, 1.03)
20-Day lead time forecast
Without multiple lag predictor variables
LASSO	0.43	(0.48, 0.57, 1.05)
ANN	0.52	(0.45, 0.31, 1.02)
RF	0.62	(0.41, 0.30, 1.04)
EA	0.57	(0.43, 0.35, 1.04)
With multiple lag predictor variables
LASSO	0.43	(0.48, 0.57, 1.06)
ANN	0.54	(0.45, 0.36, 1.02)
RF	0.64	(0.41, 0.41, 1.02)
EA	0.59	(0.43, 0.46, 1.04)
30-Day lead time forecast
Without multiple lag predictor variables
LASSO	0.37	(0.51, 0.14, 1.02)
ANN	0.53	(0.46, 0.04, 1.05)
RF	0.55	(0.44, 0.23, 1.02)
EA	0.54	(0.45, 0.10, 1.04)
With multiple lag predictor variables
LASSO	0.38	(0.52, 0.28, 1.03)
ANN	0.55	(0.46, 0.05, 1.03)
RF	0.57	(0.45, 0.25, 1.03)
EA	0.55	(0.46, 0.15, 1.04)