Table 6.

Alternate scenario analysis

Outcome indicators by vaccination coverage	Base-case analysis Average 2015–2019		Lower limit (COVID-19 pandemic affected vaccine coverage)		Upper limit a (95% vaccine coverage assumed)
Health system	All sectors	Public sector	All sectors	Public sector	All sectors	Public sector
Total cost of current scheme	96.3	80.2	83.2	67.1	101.6	85.6
Total cost of alternative scheme	99.9	82.3	85.7	68.3	105.5	87.9
Increase in absolute value of total cost with the alternative scheme	3.6	2.1	2.5	1.2	3.9	2.3
Increase in percentage	3.7%	2.6%	3.0%	1.8%	3.8%	2.7%
Cost of vaccines in current scheme	24.2	9.9	22.6	8.2	24.9	10.6
Cost of vaccines in alternative scheme	64.0	49.7	55.7	41.3	67.4	53.0
Cost of adverse events in current scheme	57.1	55.4	48.2	46.5	60.8	59.1
Cost of adverse events in alternative scheme	28.4	25.5	23.8	20.8	30.1	26.9
Programmatic costs in current scheme	14.9	14.9	12.4	12.4	15.9	15.9
Programmatic cost in alternative scheme	7.5	7.5	6.2	6.2	8.0	8.0
Cost difference between vaccines	39.8	39.8	33.1	33.1	42.5	42.5
Difference reduction rate (minimization = increase in absolute value / difference cost of the current scheme)	91.0%	94.7%	92.5%	96.4%	90.9%	94.6%
Cost of the current scheme per child	137.0	114.2	118.4	95.5	114.6	121.8
Cost of the alternative scheme per child	142.1	117.1	121.9	97.2	150.1	125.0
Increase in cost per child	5.1	3.0	3.5	1.7	5.5	3.3
Increase in % total cost per child	3.7%	2.6%	3.0%	1.8%	3.8%	2.7%
Cost of current vaccination schedule per child (4 doses per vaccine)	34.5	14.1	32.1	11.7	35.5	15.0
Cost of vaccines in alternative scheme per child (4 doses per vaccine)	91.1	70.7	79.2	58.8	95.9	75.4

All costs are in US$ million