Table 9.
The Effects of Old-Age Populations on Each Compositional Government Spending (as Percentage of Total Expenditure) Using Two-step System GMM with Percentage of Old-Age Population as A Proxy for Old-Age Populations.
| Variable | (Public Admin) | (Defense) | (Order) | (Economic) | (Environ ment) | (Housing) | (Culture) | (Health) | (Education) | (Social Protection) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percentage Old Pop, ln | −0.0248*** | −0.000603 | −0.00366* | 0.00734+ | 0.00186*** | −0.0118*** | 0.00285*** | 0.00380+ | −0.00630* | 0.0296*** |
| (0.000) | (0.686) | (0.030) | (0.078) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.100) | (0.020) | (0.000) | |
| GDP per capita, ln | 0.0243*** | −0.00286* | −0.00190 | −0.0202*** | −0.000520 | 0.00281* | 0.000101 | 0.00617*** | −0.00459+ | 0.0262*** |
| (0.000) | (0.046) | (0.135) | (0.000) | (0.124) | (0.027) | (0.849) | (0.000) | (0.062) | (0.000) | |
| Trade to GDP | −0.00813 | −0.00274+ | 0.00270+ | 0.0138*** | 0.00162*** | 0.00256+ | 0.00451*** | 0.00270 | 0.00648** | −0.00293 |
| (0.301) | (0.080) | (0.064) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.084) | (0.000) | (0.209) | (0.001) | (0.578) | |
| Control of corruption | −0.0434*** | 0.000790 | −0.00211+ | 0.0162*** | 0.000422 | −0.000193 | 0.000456 | −0.000244 | 0.00761*** | −0.0185*** |
| (0.000) | (0.646) | (0.064) | (0.001) | (0.128) | (0.884) | (0.398) | (0.878) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
| Financial Openness | −0.0473*** | 0.00490** | −0.00220 | −0.00554 | 0.00195*** | −0.00144 | 0.00239* | 0.00467 | 0.00748+ | 0.0174+ |
| (0.000) | (0.009) | (0.268) | (0.384) | (0.001) | (0.484) | (0.034) | (0.120) | (0.062) | (0.051) | |
| Democracy_dummy | 0.0161+ | −0.0115*** | 0.00141 | −0.0184*** | 0.000317 | −0.00118 | −0.00296*** | 0.00639** | 0.00387 | 0.00318 |
| (0.062) | (0.000) | (0.327) | (0.001) | (0.330) | (0.559) | (0.000) | (0.008) | (0.161) | (0.520) | |
| L.pub_exp | 0.614*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.def_exp | 0.795*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.order_exp | 0.621*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.econ_exp | 0.545*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.envi_exp | 0.643*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.housing_exp | 0.332*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.cult_exp | 0.514*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.health_exp | 0.638*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.edu_exp | 0.728*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.socpro_exp | 0.646*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| Constant | 0.138** | 0.0515*** | 0.0442*** | 0.127*** | −0.00637** | 0.00567 | −0.0203*** | −0.0504*** | 0.0219+ | −0.161*** |
| (0.002) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.002) | (0.539) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.077) | (0.000) | |
| N. Obs. | 1489 | 1489 | 1489 | 1489 | 1489 | 1489 | 1489 | 1489 | 1489 | 1489 |
| AR (1) p-value | 0.0000804 | 0.000858 | 0.000339 | 0.0000901 | 0.0139 | 0.0187 | 0.000141 | 0.0107 | 0.000208 | 0.00216 |
| AR (2) p-value | 0.102 | 0.166 | 0.0755 | 0.0780 | 0.358 | 0.400 | 0.426 | 0.187 | 0.0721 | 0.143 |
| Hansen p-value | 0.00785 | 0.411 | 0.0917 | 0.114 | 0.216 | 0.484 | 0.332 | 0.120 | 0.537 | 0.408 |
Note: This table estimates the Effects of Old-Age Populations on each Compositional Government Spending using two-step System GMM. The Ratio of each Compositional Government Spending to Total Expenditure are Dependent Variables. The Percentage of Old-Age Population is the main Independent Variable. For two-step System GMM, we let the Percentage of Old-Age Population as Instrument, but put lagged Dependent Variable as Endogeneous with collapse option. The p-value of Auto-Correlation 1st and 2nd order, including Hansen's post-Estimation Tests are presented at the bottom Panel. The p-values are presented in parentheses and +p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.
Source: Author's calculation.