Table 11.
Effects of old-age populations on each compositional government spending (as percentage of GDP) using two-step system GMM with old-age dependency ratio as a proxy for old-age populations (sample: Developing).
| Variable | (Public Admin) | (Defense) | (Order) | (Economic) | (Environ ment) | (Housing) | (Culture) | (Health) | (Education) | (Social Protection) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old_depend, ln | −3.823*** | 0.350*** | 0.0509 | −0.0856 | 0.0343 | −0.473*** | 0.0118 | −0.000214 | −0.390*** | 0.199 |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.138) | (0.764) | (0.227) | (0.000) | (0.637) | (0.997) | (0.000) | (0.291) | |
| GDP per capita | 3.872*** | −0.413*** | −0.0450 | −0.0987 | −0.00233 | 0.330*** | 0.0186 | 0.0749+ | 0.154 | 0.873*** |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.289) | (0.676) | (0.924) | (0.001) | (0.403) | (0.095) | (0.114) | (0.000) | |
| Trade to GDP | −0.168 | 0.0788 | 0.0967** | 0.915*** | 0.0686*** | 0.162** | 0.0614*** | 0.162*** | 0.241*** | −0.0956 |
| (0.643) | (0.166) | (0.005) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.007) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.506) | |
| Control of corruption | −1.671*** | 0.116*** | 0.00638 | 0.122+ | 0.0181* | 0.0344 | 0.00955 | 0.0329 | 0.137** | −0.224** |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.713) | (0.073) | (0.042) | (0.410) | (0.334) | (0.138) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
| Financial Openness | −1.544*** | 0.138* | 0.0561 | −0.441+ | 0.00308 | −0.171+ | −0.0179 | 0.170** | 0.0414 | 0.325+ |
| (0.001) | (0.034) | (0.106) | (0.059) | (0.855) | (0.087) | (0.127) | (0.002) | (0.563) | (0.089) | |
| Democracy_dummy | 0.464 | −0.0861* | 0.00180 | −0.104 | 0.0297*** | −0.0668 | −0.0186+ | 0.0335 | 0.0975+ | −0.00636 |
| (0.115) | (0.040) | (0.925) | (0.323) | (0.001) | (0.299) | (0.096) | (0.310) | (0.057) | (0.956) | |
| L.exp_pub_ gdp | 0.447*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.exp_def_gdp | 0.898*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.exp_order_gdp | 0.881*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.exp_econ_gdp | 0.483*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.exp_envi_gdp | 0.604*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.exp_housing_gdp | 0.0959** | |||||||||
| (0.003) | ||||||||||
| L.exp_cult_gdp | 0.797*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.exp_health_gdp | 0.766*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.exp_edu_gdp | 0.772*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| L.exp_socpro_gdp | 0.734*** | |||||||||
| (0.000) | ||||||||||
| Constant | −12.17*** | 1.926*** | 0.000253 | −0.709 | −0.361*** | −1.730** | −0.378* | −1.124*** | −0.962 | −5.896*** |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.999) | (0.549) | (0.001) | (0.003) | (0.010) | (0.001) | (0.109) | (0.000) | |
| N. Obs. | 746 | 710 | 748 | 771 | 576 | 746 | 688 | 774 | 772 | 718 |
| AR (1) p-value | 0.0388 | 0.00557 | 0.0657 | 0.00466 | 0.00951 | 0.117 | 0.00384 | 0.0179 | 0.0000350 | 0.0425 |
| AR (2) p-value | 0.119 | 0.635 | 0.423 | 0.355 | 0.643 | 0.675 | 0.869 | 0.424 | 0.919 | 0.482 |
| Hansen p-value | 0.621 | 0.638 | 0.354 | 0.681 | 0.618 | 0.286 | 0.380 | 0.539 | 0.526 | 0.399 |
Note: This table estimates the Effects of Old-Age Populations on each Compositional Government Spending using two-step System GMM. The Ratio of each Compositional Government Spending to GDP are Dependent Variables. The Old-Age Dependency Ratio is the main Independent Variable. For two-step System GMM, we let the Old-Age Dependency Ratio as Instrument, but put lagged Dependent Variable as Endogeneous with collapse option. The p-value of Auto-Correlation 1st and 2nd order, including Hansen's post-Estimation Tests are presented at the bottom Panel. The p-values are presented in parentheses and + p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.
Source: Author's calculation.