Table 4.

The modified 2x2 contingency table of forecasted/observed outcomes of directional forecast of one variable when a band of $\pm x$ of the forecasted outcome is considered.

Forecasted outcomes	Observed outcomes				Total
	Up		Down
	within ± x	outside ± x	within ± x	outside ± x
Up	$a$ = Up/Up (within ± x)	Up/Up (outside +/− x)	$b$ = Up/Down +		$a+b$
Down	$c$ = Down/Up +		$d$ = Down/Down (within ± x)	Down/Down (outside ± x)	$c+d$
Total	$a+c$		$b+d$		$n=a+b+c+d$