Table 7.
The evaluation of skills in directional forecasts of GDP growth, Inf, and both GDP growth and Inf one year in advance of the BOT, the FPO, and the NESDC when a band of ± 1 SD of the forecasted outcome is considered.
|
Forecasters |
Forecasted/Observed outcomes |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hits (a) |
False alarms (b) |
Misses (c) |
Correct rejections (d) |
n |
PSI(GDP) |
PSI(Inf) |
PSI(GDP&Inf) |
|||
| Up/Up (within ± 1 SD) | Up/Down | Down/Down (outside ± 1 SD) | Down/Up | Up/Up (outside ± 1 SD) | Down/Down (within ± 1 SD) | Total | [-1,1] | [-1,1] | [-1,1] | |
| BOT | ||||||||||
| GDP growth | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 0.718 | ||
| Inf | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 0.521 | ||
| GDP growth&Inf | 0.623 | |||||||||
| FPO | ||||||||||
| GDP growth | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 0.501 | ||
| Inf | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0.555 | ||
| GDP growth&Inf | 0.529 | |||||||||
| NESDC | ||||||||||
| GDP growth | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 0.439 | ||
| Inf | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0.236 | ||
| GDP growth&Inf | 0.341 | |||||||||