Table 2.

ARIMA model statistics.

Model no.	Training set	Model	R2	Ljung – Box (Q18) test		MAE	MAPE（%）	RMSE
				t	P value
1a	2004–2020 national incidence	ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0)	0.92	20.50	.199	470.06	4.89	674.03
1b	2004–2011 national incidence	ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0)	0.90	18.91	.273	552.16	5.09	801.70
1c	2012–2020 national incidence	ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0)	0.91	10.75	.825	390.74	4.41	569.95
2a	10–20 age group incidence	ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)	0.94	9.89	.872	28.83	6.62	37.72
2b	20–30 age group incidence	ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0)	0.92	17.44	.357	171.46	4.72	233.48
3a	Yunnan Province incidence	ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)	0.91	10.31	.850	23.66	12.67	30.21
3b	Hainan Province incidence	ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)	0.87	14.44	.566	13.40	16.12	17.12